THAI Stock Exchange & Market(s)

SET likely to be volatile and retreat; wait to buy on weakness

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<b>Yesterday's market</b>: The SET continued to hit new high. Specifically, the index increased to above 1550 before there was selling that pressured it to swing wildly in positive territory all day and ended slightly off its daily peak. Moreover, foreign investors continued to be key buyer.</div>
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<b>Today's outlook</b>: Foreign equity markets were volatile and retreated. Although European stock markets ended strongly higher after investors continued to have bullish view about U.S. economic outlook and were confident about the BOE's additional stimulus, Wall Street continued to swing wildly within narrow range. Moreover, there was selling that pressured U.S. equity markets to ease and end only slightly up. Given that, most regional stock markets were able to move only in narrow range this morning. Their movement was mixed with some edging up and some inching down. In Thailand, the SET has sharply and quickly increased in the last few days, while global crude began to rise at a slower rate. As a result, FSS expects the Thai index to turn to fall again, as we have anticipated.</div>
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<b>Strategy</b>: FSS continues to see the SET in a positive light, expecting the index to climb to 1650 or close before end-2016. However, investors need to be cautious over a near-term retreat, which will serve as opportunity to accumulate.</div>
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<b>Support</b>: 1545-1542 , 1538-1532<br />
<b>Resistance</b>: 1550-1552 , 1555-1560</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: fnsyrus.com / settrade.com</span></div>
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SET likely to be volatile and retreat; wait to buy on weakness

Yesterday's market : The SET continued to hit new high. Specifically, the index increased to above 1550 before there was selling that p...

Pullback looms

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<b>Limited room for fund inflows in near term</b>: In our view, the room for further fund inflows may be limited in the near term after net foreign buying of Thai shares topped Bt14bn over the past two sessions after last Sun’s charter referendum. Our forecast shows there will be scope for an additional Bt4bn inflow of foreign funds into Thai stocks which would boost the SET index by only another 5 points based on assumptions that other factors remain largely unchanged. To spur more fund inflows, further monetary easing action from ECB at next month’s policy meeting may be needed.</div>
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<br /><b>Draft charter passes referendum but there is no significant change to stock market and economic fundamentals</b>: Government spending would continue to be a key driver of the Thai economy. Even though corporate earnings look better than previously thought, the figures remains mediocre and below last year’s numbers. In valuation terms, the SET index is also inching closer towards 17x forward P/E.</div>
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<br /><b>Door still open for momentum trading in near term but clear stop loss needs to be set</b>: From our viewpoint, there remains room for shortterm trading opportunities but on a selective basis. The focus should be on earnings plays during the final stretch of the earnings season and interim dividend plays. Any dips in the SET index should not break below 1535 points as this could set it up for a deeper pullback towards 1522 points. Resistance for the SET index is seen at 1555-1560 points today.</div>
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<br /><b>Trading ideas</b>: The best stratey is selective for the meantime.<br />(1) <i>Tourism recovery play</i>: Book partial profits in AOT at Bt420.<br />(2) <i>Selective play</i>: Hold onto CPF and SAT.<br />(3) <i>Upside momentum play</i>: Hold onto SCN.</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: poems.in.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Pullback looms

Limited room for fund inflows in near term : In our view, the room for further fund inflows may be limited in the near term after net forei...

Take a breather

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Expect the SET to trade in a tight range, with positive bias. While weak US non-farm productivity data reduced expectations for the US Federal Reserve to hike rates soon, it also suggests US corporate profits may continue to decline despite strong US non-farm payrolls last week. However, a hunt for yield in Asia should continue which should support equities, particularly those with high dividend yields. Locally, the releases of 2Q16 earnings of listed companies in our universe so far have been in line or better than our expectations, which is very encouraging. Meanwhile, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) revised up its GDP forecast, reflecting another more optimistic view towards the economy.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b> </div>
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UTCC projects 3.3% economic growth. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) revised up its forecast for FY16 GDP growth to 3.3%, from prior 3%. The move was made as the economy has shown positive signs, thanks to accelerated investment by the government and political stability after the referendum. UTTC also expects 2Q16 economic growth to surpass 1Q16’s 3.2%, boosted by various stimulus measures and a robust tourism industry. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The revised figure somewhat indicates that the outlook in the remaining periods looks more promising and the country’s economy is recovering.</i></div>
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New tax incentives for SMEs approved. The cabinet yesterday approved tax incentives for owner-operated SMEs whom register as juristic persons and pay the correct amount of tax. Such tax schemes include a corporate tax deduction of 60% of expenses from 1 Jan 2017, a reduction of specific business tax to 0.01% from 2%, exemptions for corporate income tax and VAT, and a reduction of property transfer fees to 0.01% from 2%. The incentives will be effective until 31 Dec 2017. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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Low-income mortgages mostly rejected in 1H16. The Housing Finance Association said fully half of mortgage applications were rejected during the first six months of the year, up marginally from the first six months of 2015. Low-income earners, in particular, are struggling to obtain housing loans under weak economic conditions. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: With mitigation of drought effect and economic recovery, along with various supporting schemes from the government, we expect to see an improvement in 2H16.</i></div>
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BCP (Bt35.75; BUY; AWS TP Bt40.50) reported a 2Q16 net profit of Bt2.4bn, surging from a low-base in 1Q16 of Bt47mn but declined 13% YoY. (SET/Bloomberg)</div>
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<i>Comment: The result was in line with our estimate at Bt2.2bn as well as the Bloomberg consensus estimate at Bt2.3bn. We maintain BUY recommendation and TP. Please see our report today.</i><br />
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<b>Global issues</b> </div>
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Longer-dated US Treasury prices edged higher on Tuesday as a weak report on US non-farm productivity suggested the economy may not be growing as quickly as anticipated, prompting investors to cut long-term inflation expectations. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose 6/32 in price to yield 1.588%. The 30-year bond gained 21/32 in price to yield 2.286%. (Reuters)</div>
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The dollar weakened on Tuesday on a downbeat US non-farm productivity report. The dollar index fell 0.24% to 96.174. The greenback was 0.53% weaker against the yen at ¥101.88. The British pound fell for the fifth day in a row on Tuesday after a BOE policymaker said that more QE was probably necessary if Britain's economic decline worsens. (Reuters)</div>
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<b>USA</b><br />
Wall Street shares hovered near record highs on Tuesday as weak oil prices offset gains in healthcare and technology stocks. The S&P500 and Nasdaq edged up to all-time highs before a decline in oil dulled the gains. (Reuters)</div>
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US worker productivity fell for the third straight quarter in 2Q16, suggesting corporate profits may continue to decline and wage growth may remain sluggish. Worker productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, dropped at a 0.5% annual rate in 2Q16, extending the longest decline since 1979. Productivity fell at an unrevised 0.6% rate in 1Q16. In 2Q16, productivity decreased at a 0.4% rate YoY, the fastest pace of decline in three years. (Reuters)</div>
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Next data in focus: US corporate profits declined 5.3% in 2015 due to the impact of a strong US dollar and lower oil prices, before seeing an 8.1% rebound in 1Q16 according to government data. Corporate profits data for 2Q16 will be published later this month. US GDP rose at a 1.2% annual rate in 2Q16 following a 0.8% rise in 1Q16. The estimate for 2Q16 GDP growth could be revised slightly up after a report on Tuesday showed wholesale inventories increased 0.3% in June. (Reuters)</div>
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<b>Europe</b><br />
European shares rose strongly on Tuesday, rising for a fifth straight session, helped by well-received earnings reports from reinsurer Munich Re and telecoms group Altice. (Reuters)<b> </b><br />
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<b>Asia</b></div>
Japan's core machinery orders surprisingly rose 8.3% MoM in June in a sign that capital expenditure is starting to recover. The rise in core orders, which are regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, compared with economists' estimate of a 3.1% increase. Year-over-year, the core orders fell 0.9% in June, versus the estimate of a 4.2% decline. Manufacturers surveyed by the Cabinet Office forecast that core orders will rise 5.2% in 3Q16 after falling 9.2% in 2Q16. (Reuters)<br /><br />China's factory price deflation moderated further in July, with prices falling at their slowest pace in two years, taking pressure off the central bank to cut rates as policymakers turn their focus to structural reforms and ballooning credit. The PPI fell 1.7% YoY in July, smaller than June's 2.6% decline. (Reuters)<br /><br />Chinese CPI rose 1.8% YoY in July, compared with a 1.9% increase in June, and matching this year's low hit in January. Economists had expected a 1.8% gain. Consumer inflation has remained well below China's official target of around 3% in 2016. (Reuters)<br /><br /><b>Commodities</b><br />Oil prices fell 1% on Tuesday, extending losses in post-settlement trade after preliminary data showed a surprise US crude stockpile build last week. The market also lost the previous day's upward momentum as speculation fizzled that oil producers would embark on talks on price cooperation. After the market closed, API reported US crude stockpiles rose by 2.1mn barrels last week. Analysts had expected a 1.0mn-barrel drawdown. WTI futures settled down 25 cents (-0.6%) at US$42.77 a barrel. Brent crude settled down 41 cents (-0.9%) at US$44.98 a barrel. It slid to US$44.76 after the API numbers. (Reuters)<br /><br />The price of gold rose on Tuesday as the dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies and concerns over the global economic outlook trumped some expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates this year. Spot gold was up 0.5% at US$1,341.71 an ounce. US gold futures for December delivery were up US$6.50 an ounce at US$1,347.80. (Reuters)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Take a breather

Expect the SET to trade in a tight range, with positive bias. While weak US non-farm productivity data reduced expectations for the US Fede...

SET still likely to fall; wait to buy on weakness

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<b>Yesterday's market</b>: The SET jumped, responding to positive news over the result of the referendum on the draft charter. Moreover, U.S. economic data continued to look good. Investment sentiment in foreign equity markets was bright yesterday and foreign investors registered a high net buy position of nearly Bt6.9bn in Thailand.</div>
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<br /><b>Today's outlook</b>: Although the SET continued to surge since mid last week and was able to hit a new high yesterday, the jump was too high. As a result, FSS recommends that investors watch out for selling to lock in profit, which will pressure the index to fall. This morning, although Asian stock markets continued to increase, the gain started to narrow. In addition, some were volatile and moved downward. Last night, Wall Street saw choppy trading and ended slightly lower due to selling to lock in profit after the Dow's recent rally in respond to news about above-estimate employment data and a sharp recovery in global crude price that is followed by a fall this morning.</div>
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<br /><b>Strategy</b>: Although FSS maintains our bullish view about the SET, expecting that the index will climb to move near 1650 or close within this year, it is still possible that the SET will fall, serving as an opportunity to buy. For this reason, we suggest that investors wait to buy on weakness.</div>
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<br /><b>Support</b>: 1538-1532 , 1527-1520<br /><b>Resistance</b>: 1543-1545 , 1547-1555</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: fnsyrus.com / settrade.com</span></div>
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SET still likely to fall; wait to buy on weakness

Yesterday's market : The SET jumped, responding to positive news over the result of the referendum on the draft charter. Moreover, U.S....

Bullish bias intact in near term but valuation a worry

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• <b>Funds flow in after referendum ‘yes’ vote</b>: Net foreign and institutional buying of Thai shares was heavy on Mon after Thais voted overwhelmingly in favor of a new charter in last Sun’s referendum. Of particular interest was net foreign buying which rose to the tune of more than Bt6bn. By our estimate, there is scope for additional funds of around Bt8bn to flow in this year, which would boost the SET index by another 10 points based on assumptions that other factors remain largely unchanged.</div>
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<br />• <b>Earnings take center stage this week</b>: Domestic factors will likely take a front seat to external factors this week as earnings season is entering its final stretch. The earnings results released so far are generally positive for market sentiment but the valuation looks more worrying. In forward P/E terms, the SET index is inching closer towards the upper bound of its five-year trading average multiples at 17x. At current levels, the gauge is  trading above 16.6x forward P/E.</div>
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<br />• <b>Bullish sentiment likely to keep buying bias intact in near term</b>: Speculation on ECB and Fed, which may likely kick in over the next few weeks may get Thai stocks re-rated further to 17x forward P/E (~1570 points). Support for the SET index is seen at 1535 points and resistance at 1550-1560 points today. A possible break below this support level could take the main index down towards 1522 points.</div>
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<br />• <b>Investment strategy</b>: Today we recommend a selective play on fund flows.<br />(1) <i>Tourism recovery play</i>: Hold onto AOT.<br />(2) <i>Selective play</i>: Hold onto CPF and SAT.<br />(3) <i>Upside momentum play</i>: Hold onto SCN.</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: poems.in.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Bullish bias intact in near term but valuation a worry

• Funds flow in after referendum ‘yes’ vote : Net foreign and institutional buying of Thai shares was heavy on Mon after Thais voted overwh...

Euphoria fades

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Thai shares look set to trade a touch higher today in line with most Asian markets as a search for yield has driven global funds into emerging Asian stocks and bonds after the BOJ signaling no further expansion of bond buying. However, market gains should be limited by renewed global growth concerns after China’s trade data continued their downbeat trends, suggesting weak global and domestic demand. Locally, the euphoric mood of the ‘Yes’ vote on the charter draft that prompted a sharp rally yesterday could face profits taking today. The BOT governor has maintained his optimistic view over the Thai economy this year is positive.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b><br />Yes vote to smooth Megaprojects process. Director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office said the Yes vote for the new charter should help ensure that the government’s 20 planned megaprojects are on track. The cabinet has already approved 11 projects and aims to sign 18-19 projects worth a combined Bt1.4tn by the end of this year, of which Bt60bn of the total investment budget will be taken out this year. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: This gives positive sentiment as there should not be any more delays in public spending, which would help boost confidence for the private investment.</i></div>
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BoT maintains positive view on economy. Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said the central bank optimistically believes Thailand’s GDP growth this year would be able to reach its target at 3.1% YoY bolstered by a robust tourism sector along with progressive public works spending, to offset weak domestic demand and doldrums in exports amid global economic sluggishness. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<br />RCEP talks to finalize by year-end Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said ten Asean countries and six trade partners; China, South Korea, Japan, India, Australia, and New Zealand wanted the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to be finalized by the end of this year. If the RCEP is accomplished, it will be the world’s largest free-trade agreement. The RCEP committee will hold a meeting 12-19 Aug. (The Nation)<b> </b></div>
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<b>Global issues</b><br />US Treasuries debt yields were up slightly on Monday, with longer-dated maturities edging up to their highest levels in more than two weeks on a modest rise in expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise short-term interest rates by year-end. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell 2/32 in price to yield 1.586%. Thirty-year Treasury bonds rose 6/32 in price to yield 2.302%. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The US dollar gained against a basket of currencies on Monday after a stronger-than-anticipated jobs report for July on Friday raised expectations the Fed is closer to raising interest rates. The dollar index gained 0.21% to 96.293. The dollar was up 0.62% against the yen at ¥102.44. (Reuters)</div>
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<br /><b>USA</b><br />Wall Street shares retreated from record highs on Monday as a drop in healthcare stocks offset gains bolstered by higher oil prices and a strong jobs report. A rally to several all-time highs since late June has caused concerns about stretched valuations. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Europe</b><br />European stock markets rose on Monday, propped up by gains in the shares of major banks. Stocks were also supported by a rally on US markets, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs after strong jobs data on Friday. (Reuters)</div>
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Sixty one percent of companies on the STOXX 600 index have beaten or met forecasts with their 2Q16 results so far, although those earnings are down 15% YoY, according to data from Thomson Reuters StarMine. (Reuters)</div>
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<br /><b>Asia</b><br />Japan emperor worries about age: Japanese Emperor Akihito, 82, in an address to the public on Monday, said he worried that age may make it difficult for him to fully carry out his duties, remarks seen as suggesting the elderly monarch wants to abdicate. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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China's exports and imports fell more than expected in July, pointing to further weakness in global demand in the aftermath of the Brexit. Imports fell 12.5% YoY, the biggest decline since February and suggesting China's domestic demand may be faltering despite a flurry of measures to stimulate growth. Exports fell 4.4% YTD. That resulted in a trade surplus of US$52.31bn in July, the biggest since January, versus June's US$48.11bn. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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China shares inched up on Monday morning, as a surge in coal stocks and sustained interest in property shares ignited by the Vanke M&A drama offset the impact of worse-than expected trade data. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Commodities</b><br />Oil prices surged nearly 3% on Monday amid renewed speculation that OPEC would try to restrain output, easing oversupply worries that pressured the market to three-month lows last week. US crude futures settled up US$1.22 (+2.9%) at US$43.02 per barrel. Brent crude rose US$1.12 (+2.5%) to settle at US$45.39. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Gold steadied after falling to a one-week low on Monday as downward momentum from stronger-than-expected US jobs figures lost steam, with concerns over negative global economic sentiment lending support. Spot gold was up 0.07% at US$1,335.99 an ounce, after dipping to US$1,329.55, the lowest since July 27. US gold for December delivery settled down 0.2% at US$1,341.30. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Euphoria fades

Thai shares look set to trade a touch higher today in line with most Asian markets as a search for yield has driven global funds into emerg...

Charter passage to lift sentiment

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• <b>Junta-backed charter approved in referendum</b>: The ‘Yes’ vote for Junta-backed constitution should lift sentiment in the Thai stock market today and keep the buying bias intact. However, the passage of the draft charter may not have a meaningly positive impact on fundamentals as the new constituion would make it harder for the new government to launch quick stimulus measures as in the past i.e. first-car and rice pledging schemes though it ensures that a general election will be on track to take place next year. As things stand, much of the country’s economic growth would continue to depend largely on the government’s mega-investment projects, which have been progressing in a gradual manner.</div>
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<br />• <b>Earnings season in final stretch</b>: With possible positive earnings surprises in the energy space after better-than-expected results from PTTEP and recent earnings beat in the banking sector, we see scope for FY16 EPS upgrades from pre-earnings season levels. The latest Bloomberg consensus puts FY16 market EPS at Bt93/share, up from Bt92.2/share in the prior month.</div>
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<br />• <b>Positive earnings surprises to lift sentiment but much of good news already priced in</b>: Currently the SET index is trading well ahead of fundamentals above its fair forward P/E of 16x at 16.4x. To get re-rated further to 17x forward P/E, an additional boost from fund flows especially through the possible expansion of QE or negative interest rate policy from ECB next month may be needed. In a big-picture sense, resistance for the SET index is pegged at 1570 points and support at 1500 points.</div>
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<br />• <b>Investment strategy</b>: Today we recommend a selective play on fund flows.<br />(1) <i>Tourism recovery pla</i>y: Hold onto AOT.<br />(2) <i>Selective play</i>: Hold onto CPF and SAT.<br />(3) <i>Upside momentum play</i>: Hold onto SCN.</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: poems.in.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Charter passage to lift sentiment

• Junta-backed charter approved in referendum : The ‘Yes’ vote for Junta-backed constitution should lift sentiment in the Thai stock market...

SET likely to be volatile and retreat; wait to buy on weakness

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<b>Last Friday's market</b>: The SET continued to rally sharply last Friday thanks probably to speculative buying to bet on referendum result over the weekend where investors expected Thai politics to go ahead in line with the road map. Moreover, there was buying to bet on U.S. nonfarm payrolls as well.</div>
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<br /><b>Today's outlook</b>: We expect the SET the see additional support in the morning after both U.S. and European stock markets were able to end up quite sharply by over 1%, positively responding to the British government's stimulus and U.S. non-farm payrolls that surged more than expected in July. Moreover, there is domestic catalyst from progress over Thai politics after the referendum on the draft charter went well over the weekend. However, global crude remained quite volatile. In Asia, equity markets edged up quite limitedly. For these reasons, FSS maintains our call for investors to remain cautious over selling to lock in profit as it will pressure the SET to be volatile and retreat from time to time.</div>
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<br /><b>Strategy</b>: FSS expects the SET to be volatile after the index has rallied quite sharply lately. Hence, we recommend that investors wait to buy on weakness.</div>
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<br /><b>Support</b>: 1515-1512 , 1507-1500<br /><b>Resistance</b>: 1520-1522 , 1524-1526</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: fnsyrus.com / settrade.com</span></div>
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SET likely to be volatile and retreat; wait to buy on weakness

Last Friday's market : The SET continued to rally sharply last Friday thanks probably to speculative buying to bet on referendum result...

Upbeat sentiment

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Expect the SET to rise strongly today bolstered by positive factors both overseas and in the local market. Globally, a robust July US jobs report has lifted confidence in the strength of the US economy despite boosting the chance of a Fed rate hike this year. On the local front, Thai voters approved a junta-backed constitution in a referendum on Sunday which paves the way for an election next year. Although uncertainty over parliamentary politics seems to decline as a result, which investors like, it remains to be seen whether out-of-parliament politics will from now on calm down or not. The MOF’s confidence that 2Q16 GDP growth should be more than 1Q16’s 3.2% has confirmed the BOT’s earlier comments and is very encouraging.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b><br />Yes votes taking lead on charter referendum. The unofficial result from the Election Commission (EC) with 94% of the votes counted posted that 61.4% of the votes supported the draft while 38.6% of the votes opposed it. Meanwhile, on the extra question asking whether voters should allow the Senate to join the House of Representatives in choosing the prime minister, 58.1% voted for it, compared to 41.9% who rejected it. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The results were in line with the polls carried out before the referendum. The counting will resume this morning.</i></div>
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Finance Ministry upbeats Q2 GDP. Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong believe Thailand’s 2Q16 GDP would expand higher than the first quarter's growth rate of 3.2%, with an estimated growth of 3.4% driven by ramped-up state spending and stimulus measures. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: This is in line with the Bank of Thailand’s recent view expecting 2Q16 economic growth to surpass 1Q16. Note that NESDB is due to announce the country’s April-June economic reading on 15 Aug.</i></div>
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<br />Tax incentives considered for border. The Finance Ministry is considering to provide tax incentives to traders and operators who put consumer goods and machinery sought by neighboring countries up for sale in border towns, which would be subject to lower income tax, value-added tax and customs duty. Thai individuals are allowed to buy products to be sold in border towns with a cap of 20,000 per month per person to prevent non-border towns from being affected. Preliminarily, the border locations in the plan would be established in provinces that have special economic zones (SEZs). (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<br />Rayong rail project on fast track. The Transport Ministry has put the 193-km Bangkok-Rayong high-speed rail project on the fast track for consideration by public-private partnership (PPP) committee this month. The project is worth Bt153bn and is set to boost development of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). After consideration, the bid is expected to take place next year. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<br /><b>Global issues</b><br />US Treasury yields jumped on Friday, with yields on bonds maturing in 10 years and less set to post their biggest daily rise since mid-May, after a stronger-than-expected July employment report boosted expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year. US 10-yield hit more than one-week highs of 1.589% while yields on shorter-dated maturities hit their highest levels in a week. US 5-year note yields were last up nearly 11 basis points, marking the biggest rise. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />The dollar rallied across the board on Friday after data showed US employment increased more than expected in July and wages picked up. The dollar index rose 0.5% to 96.212, recovering from last week's poor showing when it fell 2% for its worst weekly performance since April. (Reuters)</div>
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<b>USA</b><br />Wall Street shares recorded their best day in a month on Friday, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs after a second straight month of robust US non-farm payrolls report for July boosted optimism that economic growth is accelerating. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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US nonfarm payrolls rose by 255,000 in July, far outpacing a forecast for a gain of 180,000 by economists. The June employment number was also revised to 292,000 from 287,000. While the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9%, it held below the 5% mark associated with full employment. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The probability of a hike doubled to 18% for September after the jobs report and rose to about 46% for December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Atlanta Fed upgrades US 3Q16 forecast to 3.8% on Friday in the wake of the latest data on payrolls and the trade balance. The latest 3Q16 GDP estimate was slightly faster than the 3.7% figure calculated on Thursday. (Reuters)</div>
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<b>Europe</b><br />European shares rose on Friday, helped by better-than-expected US jobs data and solid earnings from companies including cement making group LafargeHolcim, but Royal Bank of Scotland slumped after weak results. (Reuters)</div>
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<br /><b>Asia</b><br />Japan's current account surplus stood at ¥974.4bn (US$9.55bn) in June due to an expansion in the trade surplus. The current account surplus was smaller than economists' median forecast for a surplus of ¥1.06tn in a Reuters poll. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Japan issued a new protest to Beijing on Saturday after Chinese coastguard ships and about 230 fishing vessels sailed close to what Tokyo considers its territorial waters around disputed islets in the East China Sea, Japan's foreign ministry said. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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China's regional economies showed a marked divergence in performance in 1H16, with provinces reliant on steel making and mining reporting weak or no growth but some larger cities thriving. The northeastern steel-making province of Liaoning reported its economy shrank by 1% YoY in 1H16, the only province in China to report a contraction. Meanwhile, the southwestern metropolis of Chongqing reported growth of 10.6%, the best in the country. The nationwide growth was 6.7% in 1H16. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Commodities</b></div>
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Crude oil prices ended little changed on Friday as short-covering returned in late trading, after some weakness earlier in the session as the US dollar rose on robust US jobs data. US oil rig count went up for 6th straight week, according to Baker Hughes. Brent crude's front-month settled down just 2 cents at US$44.27 per barrel. The September front-month contract in WTI crude, settled down 13 cents (-0.3%) at US$41.80 per barrel, after falling nearly 2% earlier. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Gold fell as much as 1.7% on Friday, as the dollar rose after US data showed employment increased more than expected in July, raising the probability of an interest rate hike from the Fed this year. Spot gold fell to a one-week low of US$1,336.46 an ounce and was settled down 1.7% at US$1,338.25. It was on track for its weakest session since July 12 and set to finish the week down 0.9%. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Upbeat sentiment

Expect the SET to rise strongly today bolstered by positive factors both overseas and in the local market. Globally, a robust July US jobs ...

Sideways action seen ahead of Sun’s charter referendum

<div style="text-align: justify;">
•<b> Monetary easing measures from BO</b>E: The BOE slashed interest rates by 25 bps to a record-low 0.25% and raised the target for government bond purchases, the so-called QE to 435bn pounds from 375bn pounds. The BOE decision caused the pound to lose little ground against the US dollar but European shares reacted very little to the rate cut. As things stand, what remains to be seen is how much fresh funds would flow into emerging markets in a search for yield in a low interest rate environment.</div>
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<br />• <b>Crude oil rebound:</b> WTI crude oil prices bounced back to US$41.93/barrel, which would be positive for energy shares today. Despite profit-taking in big bank names, Thai stocks on Thu managed to finish the session in the green zone helped by gains in energy counters probably driven largely by speculation over PTT’s strong 2QFY16 results.</div>
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<br />• <b>Steady decline in trading volumes</b>: ADTV on the Thai bourse plunged to a mere Bt46,436mn on Thu from an average of Bt60,432mn in the prior month. In our view, a slowdown in trading volumes reflected investors stayed sidelined ahead of the Aug 7 charter referendum. In this sense, we expect another sideways session for Thai stocks today but sporadic bouts of profit-taking to limit risk exposure ahead of Sun’s referendum vote may kick in throughout the session. The trading range for the SET index is seen at 1500-1515 points today.</div>
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<br />• <b>Investment strategy</b>: Under current market conditions, selective play looks appropriate with a stop loss point set at 1490 points.<br />(1) <i>Tourism recovery play</i>: Hold onto AOT.<br />(2) <i>Selective play:</i> Hold onto CPF. On Thu, we added long positions on SAT to the portfolio in view of strong 2QFY16 earnings expectations. Our auto analyst puts SAT’s 2QFY16 profit growth at 86% y-y.<br />(3) <i>Upside momentum play</i>: Hold onto SCN.</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: poems.in.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Sideways action seen ahead of Sun’s charter referendum

• Monetary easing measures from BO E: The BOE slashed interest rates by 25 bps to a record-low 0.25% and raised the target for government ...

Brace for charter referendum on Sunday

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Thai shares look set to trade in a tight range today, with positive bias, as investors are likely to prefer to sit on the side line ahead of an all-important US non-farm payroll report for July that might give a clue on whether the US economy is strong enough to hike interest rates, following a recent series of strong economic data except for 2Q16 US GDP. Locally, consumer confidence was up for the first time in July which is very encouraging. Thai people are braced for the charter referendum on Sunday. Please see our report on Charter Referendum released today.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b><br />
July consumer confidence up. A survey by University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) reported that consumer confidence in July was at 72.5, reversing from the 25-month low of 71.6 in June. The turning point indicates easing worries about the impact of the recent drought, as well as positive impact from the government’s accelerated budget disbursement. (Bangkok Post)<br />
<i>Comment: The figures are anticipated to see more improvement in 2H16, with public spending and stimulus measures as the key catalysts.</i><br />
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To turn Thailand into EV manufacturing hub. The Finance Ministry along with Excise Department are ready to offer tax incentives as well as reduction of customs duty for importing electric vehicles (EVs) auto parts to encourage carmakers to assemble EVs in Thailand, as part of the country’s efforts to turn into a manufacturing hub for such vehicles. (Bangkok Post)<br />
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Bt3.9bn set aside to support rice crop price. The government is set to use Bt3.9bn to absorb as much as 12.5mn tons of rice from the new crop during the harvest season from November this year to February next year, from the total 27.7mn tons of paddy expected to be reaped, in an effort to prevent the rice price from falling. (Bangkok Post)<br />
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<b>Global issues</b><br />
US Treasury yields fell on Thursday, with some short- and medium-term issues hitting their lowest levels in more than three weeks, after the Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2009 and said it would buy government bonds. Yields on Treasuries maturing between two, three and five years hit their lowest levels in more than three weeks of 0.647%, 0.745% and 1.017%, respectively. (Reuters)<br />
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The dollar gained against a basket of currencies for a second straight session on Thursday ahead of Friday’s crucial US nonfarm payrolls report for July. The dollar index gained 0.1% to 95.674, holding above a low of 95.003 touched earlier this week. Sterling tumbled 1.5% to end at US$1.3122, posting its largest one-day fall in a month against the dollar after the BOE cut interest rates. (Reuters)<br />
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<b>USA</b><br />
Wall Street shares finished little changed on Thursday as investors kept to the sidelines ahead of Friday's US non-farm payrolls report for July. The monthly hiring data will help investors gauge the health of the economy and possibly offer insight as to when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again. (Reuters)<i></i></div>
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Better-than-expected 2Q16 results: Of the data through Thursday morning of the 403 companies in the S&P500 that have posted 2Q16 earnings, 70% have topped expectations, in line with the beat rate for the past four quarters, according to Thomson Reuters. Earnings are expected to show a decline of 2.8% for 2Q16, better than the 4.5% decline expected on July 1. (Reuters)</div>
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<b>Europe</b><br />
European shares rose on Thursday as a rise in the shares of major financial and industrial stocks such as Aviva and Siemens boosted the region's equity markets. (Reuters)<br />
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The Bank of England lowered its key lending rate to 0.25% from 0.5% and said it would take "whatever action is necessary" to achieve stability in the wake of Britain's vote to leave the EU. The BOE also launched two new schemes, one to buy £10bn of high-grade corporate bonds and another - potentially worth up to £100bn - to ensure banks keep lending even after the rate cut. (Reuters)<br />
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<b>Asia</b><br />
Toyota profit beats estimates: Toyota Motor reported that a strong yen pushed its operating profit down 15% to ¥642bn (US$6.34bn) in 2Q16. That beat an average estimate of ¥493.5bn from 11 analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S/. (Reuters)<br />
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China stocks ended Thursday roughly flat, even as most other Asian markets rallied as Beijing seems to be trapped between unappealing policy alternatives to stimulate the sluggish economy. Businesses hope rate cuts can reduce their cost burden. However, easing monetary policies further risks fuelling property price bubbles, as people have little inclination to invest in the real economy. (Reuters)<br />
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<b>Commodities</b><br />
Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Thursday, with US crude advancing firmly above the US$40-per-barrel mark Genscape reported that stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for US crude futures fell 89,071 barrels during the week to Aug. 2. The Genscape report came after US EIA’s data on Wednesday showed a 1.1mn-barrel decline at Cushing in the week to July 29. US crude futures rose US$1.10 (+2.7%) to settle at US$41.93 per barrel. Brent crude settled up US$1.19 (+2.8%) at US$44.29 a barrel. (Reuters)<br />
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Gold prices turned higher on Thursday after the BOE cut interest rates 
though gains were muted by strength in the dollar after the previous 
day's upbeat US private jobs data. Spot gold was up 0.4% at US$1,362.60 
an ounce while US gold futures for December delivery were up US$4.30 an 
ounce at US$1,369.00. (Reuters) <br />
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Brace for charter referendum on Sunday

Thai shares look set to trade in a tight range today, with positive bias, as investors are likely to prefer to sit on the side line ahead o...

SET likely to see near-term rebound prior to fall; wait to buy on weakness

<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Yesterday's market</b>: In the morning, the SET was able to steady in narrow range. In the afternoon, the SET started to rebound to end up well after it tumbled quite sharply in the last two days thanks to support from global crude which began to recover.</div>
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<br /><b>Today's outlook</b>: The SET looks likely to continue to rally after global crude continued to increase in the evening after the market was closed. Specifically, crude was able to turn to end up by over 3%. The gain was supported by a decline in U.S. oil inventories last week, which helped ease investor concern over supply glut. Given that, Wall Street started to end up, while several European stock markets turned to close higher, a factor that helped most Asian equity markets to continue to increase. However, the gain was modest because there was no fresh catalyst to support. In Thailand, FSS expects the SET to rebound within narrow range. Moreover, there is risk that the index will turn to fall again.</div>
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<br /><b>Strategy</b>: We expect the SET to rebound in the near term after the index dropped sharply in the last two days. After which, there is risk that the SET will turn to fall again. For this reason, we recommend that investors wait to buy when the index decreases.</div>
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<br /><b>Support</b>: 1505-1502 , 1497-1493<br /><b>Resistance</b>: 1508-1512 ,1515-1518 ,1520-1524</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: fnsyrus.com / settrade.com</span></div>
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SET likely to see near-term rebound prior to fall; wait to buy on weakness

Yesterday's market : In the morning, the SET was able to steady in narrow range. In the afternoon, the SET started to rebound to end up...

More choppiness in store after foreigners turn net sellers for first day

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<b>Foreigners turn net sellers of Thai shares for first day</b>: Following a morethan-one-month streak of net foreign buying which sent the SET index higher by more than 100 points, foreign investors turned net sellers of Thai shares for the first time on Wed. Foreign fund flows need to be closely watched. If net foreign selling still persists, more correction may be in the pipeline for Thai stocks.<br /> </div>
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<b>Crude oil regains ground</b>: Data on Wed showed a bigger-than-expected build in US crude inventories last week, reflecting that supply glut remained strong but the comparison to the previous figures announced in the prior week suggested less oversupply in the market, which in turn helped oil prices regain some ground. Rising oil prices would mean less pressure on energy shares today.<br /> </div>
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<b>More choppiness could be in store for Thai stocks ahead of charter referendum</b>: In our view, a slowdown in foreign fund inflows reflects foreign investors are reluctant to take positions ahead of the Aug 7 charter referendum. There is also scope for a bout of foreign profit-taking to kick in on risk aversion ahead of the referendum vote. That means a lack of a boost to lead the market further higher this week. It seems to us that elevated levels of volatility will likely continue to rule the market ahead of the referendum vote. Given its current stretched valuation of 16.2x forward P/E, the market may be at risk of a sharp correction if the draft charter is voted down in the referendum. The trading range for the SET index today is seen at 1500-1515 points with key support level pegged at 1490 points. Cut loss for S/T trading if this support level is broken.<br /> </div>
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<b>Investment strateg</b>y: Under current market conditions, selective play looks appropriate with a stop loss point set at 1490 points.<br />(1) <i>Tourism recovery pla</i>y: Hold onto AOT.<br />(2) <i>Selective play</i>: Hold onto CPF.<br />(3)<i> Upside momentum play</i>: Hold onto SCN.</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: poems.in.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQexsVBj6q8963gBhg8cr6ex2l-ZpETAiIIhlUKkaV9t46i-36gQu1dEyc_kNY1Mvvb4I6WEyUvWI6IkpML1YMbN5Izj7oL1KDk-52tP4gvuVY_6VPnlWWwtywYrQ7UQgwNi36pKphYfM/s1600/PC-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQexsVBj6q8963gBhg8cr6ex2l-ZpETAiIIhlUKkaV9t46i-36gQu1dEyc_kNY1Mvvb4I6WEyUvWI6IkpML1YMbN5Izj7oL1KDk-52tP4gvuVY_6VPnlWWwtywYrQ7UQgwNi36pKphYfM/s1600/PC-2.jpg" /></a></div>

More choppiness in store after foreigners turn net sellers for first day

Foreigners turn net sellers of Thai shares for first day : Following a morethan-one-month streak of net foreign buying which sent the SET...

Driven by oil prices again

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Expect the SET to trade higher today trailing Wall Street’s positive lead helped by a rebound in oil prices from four-month lows. The huge sell-off in JGBs this week on worries the BOJ has cut short of further bond buying expansion to stem the strong yen may provide support for risk assets, especially Asian equities. Locally, the government’s mega-infrastructure projects have continued to take shape with the latest being the inter-city 196KM highway worth Bt84.6bn kicking off yesterday. The Transport Ministry has vowed to launch a new mass transit line every year during 2016-20. The MPC kept rate unchanged and maintained accommodative monetary policy as expected.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b><br />New motorway kicked off. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Wednesday kicked off construction on a new 196-kilometre inter-city tollway, Highway No.6, linking Ayutthaya, Saraburi and Nakhon Ratchasima provinces, worth Bt84.6bn. The new tollway is expected to be completed in 2019 with the official opening in 2020 (Bangkok Post)</div>
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Ministry vows transit line expansion. The Transport Ministry has vowed to launch a new mass transit line every year during 2016-20, with ten more routes planned in Greater Bangkok. The first new Purple Line routing from Tao Pun to Bang Yai is set to launch this Saturday. The other lines include the Blue Line from Bang Sue to Tha Phra and from Hua Lamphong to Bang Khae will start running in 2018. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The vow somewhat reassures us that the projects remain on track.</i></div>
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Policy rate kept unchanged. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) yesterday voted unanimously to leave the one-day repurchase rate at 1.5%, citing overall monetary conditions remained accommodative and conducive to the economic recovery. The rate has been kept at this level since Apr 2015. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The decision was not a surprise and in line with the street’s prediction.</i></div>
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<b>Global issues</b><br />US Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday as investors awaited a key US jobs report on Friday. US 30-year Treasuries prices were last down 2/32 in price to yield 2.289%, compared with 2.286% late Tuesday. Benchmark 10-year Treasuries prices were last down slightly to yield 1.539%, from a yield of 1.537% late Tuesday. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The dollar gained on Wednesday, recovering from six-week lows in the previous session, as investors squared positions ahead of Friday's US non-farm payrolls report, data that should help determine the timing of the next interest rate hike. The dollar index rose 0.5% to 95.563. On Tuesday, the index hit a six-week low but was flat so far this week. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Economists polled by Reuters are looking for U.S. non-farm employment to have risen by 180,000 in July, while the unemployment rate is forecast to edge down to 4.8% from June's 4.9%. The official payrolls numbers are released on Friday. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>USA</b><br />Wall Street shares rose modestly on Wednesday after a sharp rise in oil prices boosted energy shares, while better-than-anticipated data on the labor market raised the possibility of a rate hike this year and helped financial stocks. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The US private sector added 179,000 jobs in July, beating estimates of 170,000. The report comes ahead of the more comprehensive national payrolls report on Friday. (Reuters)</div>
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Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Wednesday that one rate hike may be appropriate this year, despite his worry that inflation is still undershooting the US central bank's 2% target. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />Growth in the US service sector remained muted in July, with activity rising at the weakest pace in the current five-month sequence of expansion. The seasonally adjusted Markit PMI Business Activity Index registered 51.4 in July (earlier ‘flash’ estimate: 50.9), which was unchanged from the figure recorded in June and above the neutral 50.0 threshold for the fifth consecutive month. (IHS Markit)<br /> </div>
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Fastest growth of private sector output since April: The final seasonally adjusted Markit US Composite PMI Output Index posted 51.8 in July, up slightly from the unchanged from the earlier ‘flash’ figure (51.5). The final reading was above that seen in June (51.2) and signalled the fastest expansion of private sector output since April. (IHS Markit)<br /> </div>
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<b>Europe</b><br />European shares ended little changed on Wednesday as a rebound by the region's struggling banks and a rally in carmaker Fiat Chrysler helped offset losses among companies that reported poor earnings updates. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Overall earnings trend in Europe remained negative: 2Q16 earnings on the STOXX600 index are down 18% from a year ago, according to data from Thomson Reuters StarMine. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The Bank of England is poised to cut interest rates for the first time since 2009 later on Thursday, as Britain's economy teeters on the brink of recession after the Brexit vote. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Asia</b><br />Japanese cabinet reshuffle: Japanese PM Shinzo Abe appointed a conservative ally as defence minister in a cabinet reshuffle on Wednesday that left most key posts unchanged, and he promised to hasten the economy's escape from deflation and boost regional ties. Abe has retained his righthand man, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, along with Finance Minister Taro Aso and Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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China stocks edged up on Wednesday, aided by a second day of gains for property shares and growing expectations of state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms. Reports earlier this week showed home prices still rising rapidly in most of China's larger cities. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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PBOC: Accommodative policy reaffirmed: China will use multiple monetary policy tools and maintain ample liquidity and reasonable growth in lending and overall credit in 2H16, said the PBOC. The central bank will maintain a prudent monetary policy and fine-tune it as necessary. China also will keep the yuan basically stable and continue with market-based interest rate reform. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Commodities</b><br />Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Wednesday, with US crude futures returning to above US$40 a barrel, after a larger-than-expected gasoline draw offset a surprise build in crude stockpiles in the US. US crude futures settled up US$1.32 (+3.3%) at US$40.83 a barrel. Brent crude rose US$1.30 (+3.1%) to settle at US$43.10. It hit a more than three-month low of US$41.51 the previous day. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The price of gold dropped on Wednesday, retreating from a three-week high set in the previous session, after a rise in the dollar on the back of strong economic data. Spot gold fell 0.4% to US$1,357.96 an ounce. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Driven by oil prices again

Expect the SET to trade higher today trailing Wall Street’s positive lead helped by a rebound in oil prices from four-month lows. The huge ...

SET likely to continue to fall prior to new round of rallies; wait to buy on weakness

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<b>Yesterday's market</b>: The SET started to move in negative territory all day because there was selling that pressured the index to continue to fall, while there was no fresh catalyst. The selling came mainly from domestic institution owing probably to concern over domestic politics which remains largely uncertain as a key referendum on the draft charter is due on this Sunday, August 7.</div>
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<br /><b>Today's outlook</b>: We expect the SET to remain on its downward path as both U.S. and European stock markets continued to tumble overnight due to investors' lack of confidence after the release of European banks' stress test results. Moreover, U.S. economic data released lately were weak, while global crude continued to weaken. In particular, crude dropped to move below US$40 a barrel. Given that, most Asian stock markets opened sharply lower as investors chose to remain on the sidelines, waiting for U.S. oil inventories report tonight and U.S. non-farm payrolls this Friday.</div>
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<br /><b>Strategy</b>: The SET plunged by nearly 40 points in the last two trading days to trade below 1500 as we have anticipated. For this reason, we recommend that investors wait and selectively accumulate on weakness.</div>
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<br /><b>Support</b>: 1495-1490 , 1485-1480<br /><b>Resistance</b>: 1500-1505 , 1508-1512</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: fnsyrus.com / settrade.com</span><br />
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SET likely to continue to fall prior to new round of rallies; wait to buy on weakness

Yesterday's market : The SET started to move in negative territory all day because there was selling that pressured the index to contin...

THAI Stock Exchange & Market(s)

SET

SET likely to be volatile and retreat; wait to buy on weakness

Pullback looms

Take a breather

SET still likely to fall; wait to buy on weakness

Bullish bias intact in near term but valuation a worry

Euphoria fades

Charter passage to lift sentiment

SET likely to be volatile and retreat; wait to buy on weakness

Upbeat sentiment

Sideways action seen ahead of Sun’s charter referendum

Brace for charter referendum on Sunday

SET likely to see near-term rebound prior to fall; wait to buy on weakness

More choppiness in store after foreigners turn net sellers for first day

Driven by oil prices again

SET likely to continue to fall prior to new round of rallies; wait to buy on weakness

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