THAI Stock Exchange & Market(s)

Take a breather

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Expect the SET to trade in a tight range, with positive bias. While weak US non-farm productivity data reduced expectations for the US Federal Reserve to hike rates soon, it also suggests US corporate profits may continue to decline despite strong US non-farm payrolls last week. However, a hunt for yield in Asia should continue which should support equities, particularly those with high dividend yields. Locally, the releases of 2Q16 earnings of listed companies in our universe so far have been in line or better than our expectations, which is very encouraging. Meanwhile, the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) revised up its GDP forecast, reflecting another more optimistic view towards the economy.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b> </div>
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UTCC projects 3.3% economic growth. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) revised up its forecast for FY16 GDP growth to 3.3%, from prior 3%. The move was made as the economy has shown positive signs, thanks to accelerated investment by the government and political stability after the referendum. UTTC also expects 2Q16 economic growth to surpass 1Q16’s 3.2%, boosted by various stimulus measures and a robust tourism industry. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The revised figure somewhat indicates that the outlook in the remaining periods looks more promising and the country’s economy is recovering.</i></div>
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New tax incentives for SMEs approved. The cabinet yesterday approved tax incentives for owner-operated SMEs whom register as juristic persons and pay the correct amount of tax. Such tax schemes include a corporate tax deduction of 60% of expenses from 1 Jan 2017, a reduction of specific business tax to 0.01% from 2%, exemptions for corporate income tax and VAT, and a reduction of property transfer fees to 0.01% from 2%. The incentives will be effective until 31 Dec 2017. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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Low-income mortgages mostly rejected in 1H16. The Housing Finance Association said fully half of mortgage applications were rejected during the first six months of the year, up marginally from the first six months of 2015. Low-income earners, in particular, are struggling to obtain housing loans under weak economic conditions. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: With mitigation of drought effect and economic recovery, along with various supporting schemes from the government, we expect to see an improvement in 2H16.</i></div>
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BCP (Bt35.75; BUY; AWS TP Bt40.50) reported a 2Q16 net profit of Bt2.4bn, surging from a low-base in 1Q16 of Bt47mn but declined 13% YoY. (SET/Bloomberg)</div>
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<i>Comment: The result was in line with our estimate at Bt2.2bn as well as the Bloomberg consensus estimate at Bt2.3bn. We maintain BUY recommendation and TP. Please see our report today.</i><br />
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<b>Global issues</b> </div>
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Longer-dated US Treasury prices edged higher on Tuesday as a weak report on US non-farm productivity suggested the economy may not be growing as quickly as anticipated, prompting investors to cut long-term inflation expectations. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose 6/32 in price to yield 1.588%. The 30-year bond gained 21/32 in price to yield 2.286%. (Reuters)</div>
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The dollar weakened on Tuesday on a downbeat US non-farm productivity report. The dollar index fell 0.24% to 96.174. The greenback was 0.53% weaker against the yen at ¥101.88. The British pound fell for the fifth day in a row on Tuesday after a BOE policymaker said that more QE was probably necessary if Britain's economic decline worsens. (Reuters)</div>
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<b>USA</b><br />
Wall Street shares hovered near record highs on Tuesday as weak oil prices offset gains in healthcare and technology stocks. The S&P500 and Nasdaq edged up to all-time highs before a decline in oil dulled the gains. (Reuters)</div>
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US worker productivity fell for the third straight quarter in 2Q16, suggesting corporate profits may continue to decline and wage growth may remain sluggish. Worker productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, dropped at a 0.5% annual rate in 2Q16, extending the longest decline since 1979. Productivity fell at an unrevised 0.6% rate in 1Q16. In 2Q16, productivity decreased at a 0.4% rate YoY, the fastest pace of decline in three years. (Reuters)</div>
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Next data in focus: US corporate profits declined 5.3% in 2015 due to the impact of a strong US dollar and lower oil prices, before seeing an 8.1% rebound in 1Q16 according to government data. Corporate profits data for 2Q16 will be published later this month. US GDP rose at a 1.2% annual rate in 2Q16 following a 0.8% rise in 1Q16. The estimate for 2Q16 GDP growth could be revised slightly up after a report on Tuesday showed wholesale inventories increased 0.3% in June. (Reuters)</div>
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<b>Europe</b><br />
European shares rose strongly on Tuesday, rising for a fifth straight session, helped by well-received earnings reports from reinsurer Munich Re and telecoms group Altice. (Reuters)<b> </b><br />
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<b>Asia</b></div>
Japan's core machinery orders surprisingly rose 8.3% MoM in June in a sign that capital expenditure is starting to recover. The rise in core orders, which are regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, compared with economists' estimate of a 3.1% increase. Year-over-year, the core orders fell 0.9% in June, versus the estimate of a 4.2% decline. Manufacturers surveyed by the Cabinet Office forecast that core orders will rise 5.2% in 3Q16 after falling 9.2% in 2Q16. (Reuters)<br /><br />China's factory price deflation moderated further in July, with prices falling at their slowest pace in two years, taking pressure off the central bank to cut rates as policymakers turn their focus to structural reforms and ballooning credit. The PPI fell 1.7% YoY in July, smaller than June's 2.6% decline. (Reuters)<br /><br />Chinese CPI rose 1.8% YoY in July, compared with a 1.9% increase in June, and matching this year's low hit in January. Economists had expected a 1.8% gain. Consumer inflation has remained well below China's official target of around 3% in 2016. (Reuters)<br /><br /><b>Commodities</b><br />Oil prices fell 1% on Tuesday, extending losses in post-settlement trade after preliminary data showed a surprise US crude stockpile build last week. The market also lost the previous day's upward momentum as speculation fizzled that oil producers would embark on talks on price cooperation. After the market closed, API reported US crude stockpiles rose by 2.1mn barrels last week. Analysts had expected a 1.0mn-barrel drawdown. WTI futures settled down 25 cents (-0.6%) at US$42.77 a barrel. Brent crude settled down 41 cents (-0.9%) at US$44.98 a barrel. It slid to US$44.76 after the API numbers. (Reuters)<br /><br />The price of gold rose on Tuesday as the dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies and concerns over the global economic outlook trumped some expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates this year. Spot gold was up 0.5% at US$1,341.71 an ounce. US gold futures for December delivery were up US$6.50 an ounce at US$1,347.80. (Reuters)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Take a breather

Expect the SET to trade in a tight range, with positive bias. While weak US non-farm productivity data reduced expectations for the US Fede...

Euphoria fades

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Thai shares look set to trade a touch higher today in line with most Asian markets as a search for yield has driven global funds into emerging Asian stocks and bonds after the BOJ signaling no further expansion of bond buying. However, market gains should be limited by renewed global growth concerns after China’s trade data continued their downbeat trends, suggesting weak global and domestic demand. Locally, the euphoric mood of the ‘Yes’ vote on the charter draft that prompted a sharp rally yesterday could face profits taking today. The BOT governor has maintained his optimistic view over the Thai economy this year is positive.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b><br />Yes vote to smooth Megaprojects process. Director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office said the Yes vote for the new charter should help ensure that the government’s 20 planned megaprojects are on track. The cabinet has already approved 11 projects and aims to sign 18-19 projects worth a combined Bt1.4tn by the end of this year, of which Bt60bn of the total investment budget will be taken out this year. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: This gives positive sentiment as there should not be any more delays in public spending, which would help boost confidence for the private investment.</i></div>
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BoT maintains positive view on economy. Bank of Thailand (BoT) governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said the central bank optimistically believes Thailand’s GDP growth this year would be able to reach its target at 3.1% YoY bolstered by a robust tourism sector along with progressive public works spending, to offset weak domestic demand and doldrums in exports amid global economic sluggishness. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<br />RCEP talks to finalize by year-end Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said ten Asean countries and six trade partners; China, South Korea, Japan, India, Australia, and New Zealand wanted the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to be finalized by the end of this year. If the RCEP is accomplished, it will be the world’s largest free-trade agreement. The RCEP committee will hold a meeting 12-19 Aug. (The Nation)<b> </b></div>
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<b>Global issues</b><br />US Treasuries debt yields were up slightly on Monday, with longer-dated maturities edging up to their highest levels in more than two weeks on a modest rise in expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise short-term interest rates by year-end. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes fell 2/32 in price to yield 1.586%. Thirty-year Treasury bonds rose 6/32 in price to yield 2.302%. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The US dollar gained against a basket of currencies on Monday after a stronger-than-anticipated jobs report for July on Friday raised expectations the Fed is closer to raising interest rates. The dollar index gained 0.21% to 96.293. The dollar was up 0.62% against the yen at ¥102.44. (Reuters)</div>
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<br /><b>USA</b><br />Wall Street shares retreated from record highs on Monday as a drop in healthcare stocks offset gains bolstered by higher oil prices and a strong jobs report. A rally to several all-time highs since late June has caused concerns about stretched valuations. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Europe</b><br />European stock markets rose on Monday, propped up by gains in the shares of major banks. Stocks were also supported by a rally on US markets, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs after strong jobs data on Friday. (Reuters)</div>
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Sixty one percent of companies on the STOXX 600 index have beaten or met forecasts with their 2Q16 results so far, although those earnings are down 15% YoY, according to data from Thomson Reuters StarMine. (Reuters)</div>
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<br /><b>Asia</b><br />Japan emperor worries about age: Japanese Emperor Akihito, 82, in an address to the public on Monday, said he worried that age may make it difficult for him to fully carry out his duties, remarks seen as suggesting the elderly monarch wants to abdicate. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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China's exports and imports fell more than expected in July, pointing to further weakness in global demand in the aftermath of the Brexit. Imports fell 12.5% YoY, the biggest decline since February and suggesting China's domestic demand may be faltering despite a flurry of measures to stimulate growth. Exports fell 4.4% YTD. That resulted in a trade surplus of US$52.31bn in July, the biggest since January, versus June's US$48.11bn. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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China shares inched up on Monday morning, as a surge in coal stocks and sustained interest in property shares ignited by the Vanke M&A drama offset the impact of worse-than expected trade data. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Commodities</b><br />Oil prices surged nearly 3% on Monday amid renewed speculation that OPEC would try to restrain output, easing oversupply worries that pressured the market to three-month lows last week. US crude futures settled up US$1.22 (+2.9%) at US$43.02 per barrel. Brent crude rose US$1.12 (+2.5%) to settle at US$45.39. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Gold steadied after falling to a one-week low on Monday as downward momentum from stronger-than-expected US jobs figures lost steam, with concerns over negative global economic sentiment lending support. Spot gold was up 0.07% at US$1,335.99 an ounce, after dipping to US$1,329.55, the lowest since July 27. US gold for December delivery settled down 0.2% at US$1,341.30. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Euphoria fades

Thai shares look set to trade a touch higher today in line with most Asian markets as a search for yield has driven global funds into emerg...

Upbeat sentiment

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Expect the SET to rise strongly today bolstered by positive factors both overseas and in the local market. Globally, a robust July US jobs report has lifted confidence in the strength of the US economy despite boosting the chance of a Fed rate hike this year. On the local front, Thai voters approved a junta-backed constitution in a referendum on Sunday which paves the way for an election next year. Although uncertainty over parliamentary politics seems to decline as a result, which investors like, it remains to be seen whether out-of-parliament politics will from now on calm down or not. The MOF’s confidence that 2Q16 GDP growth should be more than 1Q16’s 3.2% has confirmed the BOT’s earlier comments and is very encouraging.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b><br />Yes votes taking lead on charter referendum. The unofficial result from the Election Commission (EC) with 94% of the votes counted posted that 61.4% of the votes supported the draft while 38.6% of the votes opposed it. Meanwhile, on the extra question asking whether voters should allow the Senate to join the House of Representatives in choosing the prime minister, 58.1% voted for it, compared to 41.9% who rejected it. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The results were in line with the polls carried out before the referendum. The counting will resume this morning.</i></div>
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Finance Ministry upbeats Q2 GDP. Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong believe Thailand’s 2Q16 GDP would expand higher than the first quarter's growth rate of 3.2%, with an estimated growth of 3.4% driven by ramped-up state spending and stimulus measures. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: This is in line with the Bank of Thailand’s recent view expecting 2Q16 economic growth to surpass 1Q16. Note that NESDB is due to announce the country’s April-June economic reading on 15 Aug.</i></div>
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<br />Tax incentives considered for border. The Finance Ministry is considering to provide tax incentives to traders and operators who put consumer goods and machinery sought by neighboring countries up for sale in border towns, which would be subject to lower income tax, value-added tax and customs duty. Thai individuals are allowed to buy products to be sold in border towns with a cap of 20,000 per month per person to prevent non-border towns from being affected. Preliminarily, the border locations in the plan would be established in provinces that have special economic zones (SEZs). (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<br />Rayong rail project on fast track. The Transport Ministry has put the 193-km Bangkok-Rayong high-speed rail project on the fast track for consideration by public-private partnership (PPP) committee this month. The project is worth Bt153bn and is set to boost development of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). After consideration, the bid is expected to take place next year. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<br /><b>Global issues</b><br />US Treasury yields jumped on Friday, with yields on bonds maturing in 10 years and less set to post their biggest daily rise since mid-May, after a stronger-than-expected July employment report boosted expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate hike this year. US 10-yield hit more than one-week highs of 1.589% while yields on shorter-dated maturities hit their highest levels in a week. US 5-year note yields were last up nearly 11 basis points, marking the biggest rise. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />The dollar rallied across the board on Friday after data showed US employment increased more than expected in July and wages picked up. The dollar index rose 0.5% to 96.212, recovering from last week's poor showing when it fell 2% for its worst weekly performance since April. (Reuters)</div>
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<b>USA</b><br />Wall Street shares recorded their best day in a month on Friday, with the S&P500 and Nasdaq closing at record highs after a second straight month of robust US non-farm payrolls report for July boosted optimism that economic growth is accelerating. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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US nonfarm payrolls rose by 255,000 in July, far outpacing a forecast for a gain of 180,000 by economists. The June employment number was also revised to 292,000 from 287,000. While the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.9%, it held below the 5% mark associated with full employment. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The probability of a hike doubled to 18% for September after the jobs report and rose to about 46% for December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Atlanta Fed upgrades US 3Q16 forecast to 3.8% on Friday in the wake of the latest data on payrolls and the trade balance. The latest 3Q16 GDP estimate was slightly faster than the 3.7% figure calculated on Thursday. (Reuters)</div>
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<b>Europe</b><br />European shares rose on Friday, helped by better-than-expected US jobs data and solid earnings from companies including cement making group LafargeHolcim, but Royal Bank of Scotland slumped after weak results. (Reuters)</div>
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<br /><b>Asia</b><br />Japan's current account surplus stood at ¥974.4bn (US$9.55bn) in June due to an expansion in the trade surplus. The current account surplus was smaller than economists' median forecast for a surplus of ¥1.06tn in a Reuters poll. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Japan issued a new protest to Beijing on Saturday after Chinese coastguard ships and about 230 fishing vessels sailed close to what Tokyo considers its territorial waters around disputed islets in the East China Sea, Japan's foreign ministry said. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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China's regional economies showed a marked divergence in performance in 1H16, with provinces reliant on steel making and mining reporting weak or no growth but some larger cities thriving. The northeastern steel-making province of Liaoning reported its economy shrank by 1% YoY in 1H16, the only province in China to report a contraction. Meanwhile, the southwestern metropolis of Chongqing reported growth of 10.6%, the best in the country. The nationwide growth was 6.7% in 1H16. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Commodities</b></div>
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Crude oil prices ended little changed on Friday as short-covering returned in late trading, after some weakness earlier in the session as the US dollar rose on robust US jobs data. US oil rig count went up for 6th straight week, according to Baker Hughes. Brent crude's front-month settled down just 2 cents at US$44.27 per barrel. The September front-month contract in WTI crude, settled down 13 cents (-0.3%) at US$41.80 per barrel, after falling nearly 2% earlier. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Gold fell as much as 1.7% on Friday, as the dollar rose after US data showed employment increased more than expected in July, raising the probability of an interest rate hike from the Fed this year. Spot gold fell to a one-week low of US$1,336.46 an ounce and was settled down 1.7% at US$1,338.25. It was on track for its weakest session since July 12 and set to finish the week down 0.9%. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Upbeat sentiment

Expect the SET to rise strongly today bolstered by positive factors both overseas and in the local market. Globally, a robust July US jobs ...

Brace for charter referendum on Sunday

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Thai shares look set to trade in a tight range today, with positive bias, as investors are likely to prefer to sit on the side line ahead of an all-important US non-farm payroll report for July that might give a clue on whether the US economy is strong enough to hike interest rates, following a recent series of strong economic data except for 2Q16 US GDP. Locally, consumer confidence was up for the first time in July which is very encouraging. Thai people are braced for the charter referendum on Sunday. Please see our report on Charter Referendum released today.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b><br />
July consumer confidence up. A survey by University of Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) reported that consumer confidence in July was at 72.5, reversing from the 25-month low of 71.6 in June. The turning point indicates easing worries about the impact of the recent drought, as well as positive impact from the government’s accelerated budget disbursement. (Bangkok Post)<br />
<i>Comment: The figures are anticipated to see more improvement in 2H16, with public spending and stimulus measures as the key catalysts.</i><br />
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To turn Thailand into EV manufacturing hub. The Finance Ministry along with Excise Department are ready to offer tax incentives as well as reduction of customs duty for importing electric vehicles (EVs) auto parts to encourage carmakers to assemble EVs in Thailand, as part of the country’s efforts to turn into a manufacturing hub for such vehicles. (Bangkok Post)<br />
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Bt3.9bn set aside to support rice crop price. The government is set to use Bt3.9bn to absorb as much as 12.5mn tons of rice from the new crop during the harvest season from November this year to February next year, from the total 27.7mn tons of paddy expected to be reaped, in an effort to prevent the rice price from falling. (Bangkok Post)<br />
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<b>Global issues</b><br />
US Treasury yields fell on Thursday, with some short- and medium-term issues hitting their lowest levels in more than three weeks, after the Bank of England cut interest rates for the first time since 2009 and said it would buy government bonds. Yields on Treasuries maturing between two, three and five years hit their lowest levels in more than three weeks of 0.647%, 0.745% and 1.017%, respectively. (Reuters)<br />
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The dollar gained against a basket of currencies for a second straight session on Thursday ahead of Friday’s crucial US nonfarm payrolls report for July. The dollar index gained 0.1% to 95.674, holding above a low of 95.003 touched earlier this week. Sterling tumbled 1.5% to end at US$1.3122, posting its largest one-day fall in a month against the dollar after the BOE cut interest rates. (Reuters)<br />
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<b>USA</b><br />
Wall Street shares finished little changed on Thursday as investors kept to the sidelines ahead of Friday's US non-farm payrolls report for July. The monthly hiring data will help investors gauge the health of the economy and possibly offer insight as to when the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again. (Reuters)<i></i></div>
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Better-than-expected 2Q16 results: Of the data through Thursday morning of the 403 companies in the S&P500 that have posted 2Q16 earnings, 70% have topped expectations, in line with the beat rate for the past four quarters, according to Thomson Reuters. Earnings are expected to show a decline of 2.8% for 2Q16, better than the 4.5% decline expected on July 1. (Reuters)</div>
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<b>Europe</b><br />
European shares rose on Thursday as a rise in the shares of major financial and industrial stocks such as Aviva and Siemens boosted the region's equity markets. (Reuters)<br />
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The Bank of England lowered its key lending rate to 0.25% from 0.5% and said it would take "whatever action is necessary" to achieve stability in the wake of Britain's vote to leave the EU. The BOE also launched two new schemes, one to buy £10bn of high-grade corporate bonds and another - potentially worth up to £100bn - to ensure banks keep lending even after the rate cut. (Reuters)<br />
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<b>Asia</b><br />
Toyota profit beats estimates: Toyota Motor reported that a strong yen pushed its operating profit down 15% to ¥642bn (US$6.34bn) in 2Q16. That beat an average estimate of ¥493.5bn from 11 analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S/. (Reuters)<br />
</div>
China stocks ended Thursday roughly flat, even as most other Asian markets rallied as Beijing seems to be trapped between unappealing policy alternatives to stimulate the sluggish economy. Businesses hope rate cuts can reduce their cost burden. However, easing monetary policies further risks fuelling property price bubbles, as people have little inclination to invest in the real economy. (Reuters)<br />
<br />
<b>Commodities</b><br />
Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Thursday, with US crude advancing firmly above the US$40-per-barrel mark Genscape reported that stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub for US crude futures fell 89,071 barrels during the week to Aug. 2. The Genscape report came after US EIA’s data on Wednesday showed a 1.1mn-barrel decline at Cushing in the week to July 29. US crude futures rose US$1.10 (+2.7%) to settle at US$41.93 per barrel. Brent crude settled up US$1.19 (+2.8%) at US$44.29 a barrel. (Reuters)<br />
<br />
Gold prices turned higher on Thursday after the BOE cut interest rates 
though gains were muted by strength in the dollar after the previous 
day's upbeat US private jobs data. Spot gold was up 0.4% at US$1,362.60 
an ounce while US gold futures for December delivery were up US$4.30 an 
ounce at US$1,369.00. (Reuters) <br />
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Brace for charter referendum on Sunday

Thai shares look set to trade in a tight range today, with positive bias, as investors are likely to prefer to sit on the side line ahead o...

Driven by oil prices again

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Expect the SET to trade higher today trailing Wall Street’s positive lead helped by a rebound in oil prices from four-month lows. The huge sell-off in JGBs this week on worries the BOJ has cut short of further bond buying expansion to stem the strong yen may provide support for risk assets, especially Asian equities. Locally, the government’s mega-infrastructure projects have continued to take shape with the latest being the inter-city 196KM highway worth Bt84.6bn kicking off yesterday. The Transport Ministry has vowed to launch a new mass transit line every year during 2016-20. The MPC kept rate unchanged and maintained accommodative monetary policy as expected.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b><br />New motorway kicked off. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha on Wednesday kicked off construction on a new 196-kilometre inter-city tollway, Highway No.6, linking Ayutthaya, Saraburi and Nakhon Ratchasima provinces, worth Bt84.6bn. The new tollway is expected to be completed in 2019 with the official opening in 2020 (Bangkok Post)</div>
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Ministry vows transit line expansion. The Transport Ministry has vowed to launch a new mass transit line every year during 2016-20, with ten more routes planned in Greater Bangkok. The first new Purple Line routing from Tao Pun to Bang Yai is set to launch this Saturday. The other lines include the Blue Line from Bang Sue to Tha Phra and from Hua Lamphong to Bang Khae will start running in 2018. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The vow somewhat reassures us that the projects remain on track.</i></div>
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Policy rate kept unchanged. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) yesterday voted unanimously to leave the one-day repurchase rate at 1.5%, citing overall monetary conditions remained accommodative and conducive to the economic recovery. The rate has been kept at this level since Apr 2015. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The decision was not a surprise and in line with the street’s prediction.</i></div>
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<b>Global issues</b><br />US Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday as investors awaited a key US jobs report on Friday. US 30-year Treasuries prices were last down 2/32 in price to yield 2.289%, compared with 2.286% late Tuesday. Benchmark 10-year Treasuries prices were last down slightly to yield 1.539%, from a yield of 1.537% late Tuesday. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The dollar gained on Wednesday, recovering from six-week lows in the previous session, as investors squared positions ahead of Friday's US non-farm payrolls report, data that should help determine the timing of the next interest rate hike. The dollar index rose 0.5% to 95.563. On Tuesday, the index hit a six-week low but was flat so far this week. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Economists polled by Reuters are looking for U.S. non-farm employment to have risen by 180,000 in July, while the unemployment rate is forecast to edge down to 4.8% from June's 4.9%. The official payrolls numbers are released on Friday. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>USA</b><br />Wall Street shares rose modestly on Wednesday after a sharp rise in oil prices boosted energy shares, while better-than-anticipated data on the labor market raised the possibility of a rate hike this year and helped financial stocks. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The US private sector added 179,000 jobs in July, beating estimates of 170,000. The report comes ahead of the more comprehensive national payrolls report on Friday. (Reuters)</div>
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Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said on Wednesday that one rate hike may be appropriate this year, despite his worry that inflation is still undershooting the US central bank's 2% target. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />Growth in the US service sector remained muted in July, with activity rising at the weakest pace in the current five-month sequence of expansion. The seasonally adjusted Markit PMI Business Activity Index registered 51.4 in July (earlier ‘flash’ estimate: 50.9), which was unchanged from the figure recorded in June and above the neutral 50.0 threshold for the fifth consecutive month. (IHS Markit)<br /> </div>
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Fastest growth of private sector output since April: The final seasonally adjusted Markit US Composite PMI Output Index posted 51.8 in July, up slightly from the unchanged from the earlier ‘flash’ figure (51.5). The final reading was above that seen in June (51.2) and signalled the fastest expansion of private sector output since April. (IHS Markit)<br /> </div>
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<b>Europe</b><br />European shares ended little changed on Wednesday as a rebound by the region's struggling banks and a rally in carmaker Fiat Chrysler helped offset losses among companies that reported poor earnings updates. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Overall earnings trend in Europe remained negative: 2Q16 earnings on the STOXX600 index are down 18% from a year ago, according to data from Thomson Reuters StarMine. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The Bank of England is poised to cut interest rates for the first time since 2009 later on Thursday, as Britain's economy teeters on the brink of recession after the Brexit vote. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Asia</b><br />Japanese cabinet reshuffle: Japanese PM Shinzo Abe appointed a conservative ally as defence minister in a cabinet reshuffle on Wednesday that left most key posts unchanged, and he promised to hasten the economy's escape from deflation and boost regional ties. Abe has retained his righthand man, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, along with Finance Minister Taro Aso and Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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China stocks edged up on Wednesday, aided by a second day of gains for property shares and growing expectations of state-owned enterprise (SOE) reforms. Reports earlier this week showed home prices still rising rapidly in most of China's larger cities. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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PBOC: Accommodative policy reaffirmed: China will use multiple monetary policy tools and maintain ample liquidity and reasonable growth in lending and overall credit in 2H16, said the PBOC. The central bank will maintain a prudent monetary policy and fine-tune it as necessary. China also will keep the yuan basically stable and continue with market-based interest rate reform. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Commodities</b><br />Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Wednesday, with US crude futures returning to above US$40 a barrel, after a larger-than-expected gasoline draw offset a surprise build in crude stockpiles in the US. US crude futures settled up US$1.32 (+3.3%) at US$40.83 a barrel. Brent crude rose US$1.30 (+3.1%) to settle at US$43.10. It hit a more than three-month low of US$41.51 the previous day. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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The price of gold dropped on Wednesday, retreating from a three-week high set in the previous session, after a rise in the dollar on the back of strong economic data. Spot gold fell 0.4% to US$1,357.96 an ounce. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Driven by oil prices again

Expect the SET to trade higher today trailing Wall Street’s positive lead helped by a rebound in oil prices from four-month lows. The huge ...

Doubts of further bond buying

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Thai shares are poised to trade lower today tracking losses on global bourses as doubts over whether the BOJ will stop short of enhancing its bond buying scheme and let fiscal policy stimulate their economy might trigger the end of the bull run in prices of sovereign bonds. If other central banks follow suit asset price inflation will slow. Locally, the Cabinet approved more financial schemes to support and help low income people and SMEs which should have limited impact on market sentiment. Meanwhile, Thai people are braced for the charter referendum on Sunday.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b><br />
Financial aid to low-income earners approved. The cabinet yesterday gave a nod on new financial packages worth Bt20bn through the Government Savings Bank (GSB). One of the packages includes the aid to low-income earners, such as independent business owners and small community enterprises, which will be entitled to borrow Bt50,000 each with no interest for the first year and interest of 1% in the second to fifth year. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: We reckon this would not significantly affect MTLS (Bt18.90; BUY; 16 AWS TP Bt26.00) and SAWAD (Bt37.75; BUY; 16 AWS TP Bt57.00) as there is still large demand for financing out there in a large untapped market. Further, their target customers are typically those who have no access to financial services from commercial banks.</i></div>
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New soft loans packages to SMEs. The Thai Bankers Association (TBA) approved Bt10bn in soft loans for SMEs as a part of the Pracha Rat initiative in order to relieve their financial liquidity problems amidst a sluggish economy. These new soft loans will charge a fixed interest rate of 4% per year for the first two years and then the minimum retail rate throughout the remaining term. The scheme will commence from 15 Aug onwards. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The four big banks, BBL (Bt165.50; BUY; 16 AWS TP Bt188.00), KBANK (Bt191.00; BUY; 16 AWS TP Bt203.00), KTB (Bt17.20; BUY; 16 AWS TP Bt20.00), and SCB (Bt155.00; BUY; 16 AWS TP Bt179.00), are expected to lend a significant amount through this scheme, which should simultaneously benefit their loan growths in 2H16.</i><br />
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NBTC plans to auction 11 telecom licences in next 5 years for four spectra: 2.6 gigahertz, 1,800 megahertz, 850 MHz and 700MHz. NBTC said that no less than 70MHz of the 190MHz of the 2.6GHz spectrum would be reallocated for mobile communications by 2017. (The Nation)</div>
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<i>Comment: We believe that the auction would not happen until late 2017. Before then DTAC (Bt31.75, Hold, AWS 16TP Bt31.00) will suffer the most from prolonged spectrum allocation since it lost in both 1800 MHz and 900MHz auctions.</i><br />
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Passenger boom in 1H16. Combined passengers in the first half of the year soared by 12.5% YoY to 61.07mn, according to figures compiled by Airports of Thailand Plc, boosted by overseas tourism sector along with improved stability in country. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The government should accelerate the expansion of the domestic airport infrastructure, particularly Suvarnabhumi Airport Phase 2, to serve rising passenger demand.</i></div>
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<br />
<b>Global issues</b><br />
Fears of BOJ stops bond buying: Japanese bonds have suffered their worst sell-off in more than three years on Tuesday as investors feared the BoJ might stop further bond buying scheme and leave it to fiscal policy to stimulate the economy. (Reuters)<br />
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US Treasury yields rose on Tuesday after Japan unveiled fiscal stimulus measures, dampening demand for US government debt and sending long-dated US yields to their highest levels in more than a week. US 30-year yields rose the most among US Treasuries and hit 2.332%, their highest since 21 Jul, before pulling back. US 30-year yields were last at 2.300%. Benchmark 10-year yields hit a six-day high of 1.573%, but were last at 1.544%. (Reuters)<br />
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The dollar dropped to a six-week low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, pressured by expectations the Federal Reserve would delay raising interest rates after last week's soft US growth data. The dollar index fell 0.7% to 95.048, after earlier sliding to 95.0031, the lowest level since 24 Jun. (Reuters)<br />
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<b>USA</b><br />
Wall Street stocks fell on Tuesday, with each of the major indexes notching their worst day in about a month, as last week's soft US GDP data still spurred concerns about growth and another drop in US crude below US$40 a barrel weighed on sentiment. Investors seemed to shrug off strong consumer data and auto sales. (Reuters)<br />
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Most 2Q16 results so far beat expectations: Of the 353 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings through Tuesday morning, 71% have topped analyst expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data. Earnings for 2Q16 are expected to show a decline of 2.6%, an improvement from the expected 4.5% decline on 1 Jul. (Reuters)<br />
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US consumer spending rose more than expected in June, suggesting strength that appeared to be sustained early in 3Q16 with auto sales surging to an eight-month high in July. Consumer spending increased 0.4% MoM in June after a similar gain in May. Economists had forecast consumer spending advancing 0.3%. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />
Auto sales surged to a 17.88mn-unit annual rate last month, the highest since November 2015, from a 16.74mn-unit pace in June, according to data from Autodata. Analysts had expected sales to increase to a 17.3mn unit rate. The rebound in auto sales came despite General Motors reporting a 2% drop and Ford Motor reported a 3% decline in sales last month. (Reuters)<br />
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There was little sign of inflation in June. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, rose 0.1% in June after a 0.2% gain in May. In the 12 months through June the core PCE increased 1.6%. It has risen by the same margin since March. The core PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and is running below the US central bank's 2% target. (Reuters)<br />
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<b>Europe</b><br />
European shares hit a two-week low on Tuesday following poor results from some firms and another day of weak performance for the banking sector. Investors are worried about banks’ capital position after last week's EU bank stress tests and their earnings in a negative interest rate environment. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />
<b>Asi</b>a<br />
Japanese PM Shinzo Abe's cabinet approved ¥13.5tn (US$132bn) in fiscal measures on Tuesday even as the central bank fought market speculation that it is preparing to put the brakes on monetary stimulus for the world's third-biggest economy. The government's package includes ¥7.5tn in spending by the national and local governments, and earmarks ¥6.0tn from the Fiscal Investment and Loan Program, which is not included in the government's general budget. The package's headline figure is ¥28.1tn, but it includes public-private partnerships and other amounts that are not direct government outlays and thus might not give an immediate boost to growth. (Reuters)<br />
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China home prices are still rising rapidly in most larger cities, but may have peaked in the high-flying southern city of Shenzhen. Prices of new homes in 100 cities rose 12.39% YoY in July, faster than the pace in June. The average home price was 12,009 yuan (US$1,807) per square metre in July across the 100 cities, up 1.63% MoM, compared with a 1.32% increase in June. But in Shenzhen, where the cost of homes have risen the fastest in the country this year, prices peaked at 69,843 yuan (US$10,509.03) per square metre in the first week of the month, then fell over 27%. (Reuters)<br />
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<b>Commodities</b><br />
US crude oil fell on Tuesday to end below US$40 a barrel for the first time since April as persistent worries of both a crude and refined fuel glut and a slide in US equities offset an early boost from a weak dollar. US crude futures settled down 55 cents (-1.4%) at US$39.51 a barrel. Brent crude fell 34 cents (-0.8%) to settle at US$41.80. (Reuters)<br />
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Gold rose to a four-week high on Tuesday as European and US shares fell and the dollar hit its lowest in over a month after last week's soft US growth data dented expectations for a near-term interest rate hike. Spot gold was up 0.9% at US$1,365.09 an ounce. US gold futures for December delivery settled up 1% at US$1,372.60. (Reuters)<br />
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Doubts of further bond buying

Thai shares are poised to trade lower today tracking losses on global bourses as doubts over whether the BOJ will stop short of enhancing i...

Downbeat global data and sliding crude prices drag

<div style="text-align: justify;">
Expect SET to edge lower today as risk sentiment is dampened by overnight losses in global stock markets and as oil prices tumbled below US$40, which might drag down energy shares. Except for Manufacturing PMI for China, which expanded for the first time in 17 months in July, other economic data from the US and Japan were all downbeat, renewing global growth concerns. Locally, while the four consecutive months of increases in consumer prices indicate signs of progress for economic recovery, the plunge in foreign direct investment in 1H16, aside from other factors, reflects more of the structural problem of the Thai industry that still relies on low-technology products.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Local issue</b><br />Consumer prices up four-straight months. According to the Commerce Ministry, consumer prices, based on 450 products and services, inched up 0.1% YoY in July, marking the fourth-consecutive month of increase. Core inflation was 0.76% YoY. Consumer prices in the first seven months contracted 0.07% YoY, with core inflation at 0.73%. The ministry expects the figures to continue rising resulting from the government’s stimulus measure and the country’s economic recovery. It also maintains its FY16 inflation forecast at 0-1%, based on an economic growth forecast of 2.8-3.8%. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: With progressive signs of recovery we believe the target is achievable.</i></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
FDI plunged to lowest level in over decade. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in 1H16 plummeted by more than 90% YoY to US$347mn, the lowest figure since 2005. The huge dip was owing to the structure of Thai industry, which is producing low-technology products while Thai wages are rising, global economy is lackluster, and there is policy uncertainty in Thailand. (Bangkok Post)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i>Comment: The figure should see more improvement in 2H16, along with the expected improving state of the global and domestic economies.</i></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />MEA to accelerate & expand power line underground project. The Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA) says the stated agency is still progressing on the 127-km power line underground project initiated earlier this year with a total investment budget of Bt48.7bn, which expects to completely bury by 2020 sooner than 2025 previously anticipated. In addition, MEA plans for a second phase covering power lines on a several further streets with a total length of 134.3km, which expects construction to start in 2017. (Bangkok Post)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i>Comment: These would directly benefit CTW, who manufactures and distributes power cable & wire, and ARROW who produces electrical wiring conduit.</i></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
2-week deadline for rail development plan. Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak has told authorities to finalize in two weeks the commercial development plan for potential areas along the four high-speed train lines including Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima, Bangkok-Hua Hin, Bangkok-Chiang Mai, and Bangkok-Rayong sections. (Bangkok Post)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Global issues</b><br />US Treasury yields rose on Monday from Friday's multi-week lows as Microsoft Corp launched the fifth largest corporate bond offering of all time, drawing appetite away from safe-haven US government debt, and on profit-taking. Benchmark US 10-year Treasuries prices were last down 14/32 to yield 1.5077%, after touching a more than two-week low in yield of 1.450% Friday. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The dollar rebounded on Monday after its poorest weekly performance in three months the previous week, helped by gains against the yen, which pulled back from Friday's three-week highs after the BOJ eased policy less aggressively than expected. The dollar index rose 0.2% to 95.755. Against the yen, the dollar rose 0.3% to ¥102.325, recovering from a three-week low. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /><b>USA</b><br />Wall Street shares closed mixed on Monday as the S&P500 and DJIA were dragged down by energy stocks after crude prices dropped below US$40, before settling at US$40.06. Exxon and Chevron were the biggest drags. However, big tech names Apple and Alphabet lifted the Nasdaq to its highest close in over a year. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The US manufacturing sector in July expanded at a slower pace than in the previous month. The ISM’s index of national factory activity fell to 52.6 from 53.2 in June. The reading was just below economists’ expectations of 53.0. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector and a reading below 50 indicates contraction. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Earnings are now expected to decline 3% for 2Q16, according to Thomson Reuters data, an improvement from a 3.7% drop on Friday and a 4.5% decline expected on 1 Jul. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
The chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by year-end dropped to about 35%, according to CME Group's Fedwatch, down from more than 50% last week. (Reuters)<br /><br /><b>Europe</b><br />European shares closed lower on Monday, dragged down by energy shares following a sharp decline in crude oil prices and bank shares such as UniCredit and Raiffeisen that performed poorly in a Europe-wide stress tests. (Reuters)<br /><div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Asia</b><br />Japan's negative rates whack big banks: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Japan's biggest lender, said its Mar-to-Jun quarterly profit skidded nearly a third as the BOJ's negative interest rates slashed returns on loans without coaxing firms to ramp up new borrowing and stoke growth. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />Japanese manufacturing activity shrank in July at a slower pace than the previous month but new export orders contracted the fastest in more than 3-1/2 years, in an indication that recent yen gains are hurting exporters. The IHS Markit/Nikkei Japan Final Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.3 in July, versus a preliminary 49.0 and a final reading of 48.1 in June. But the headline index remained below the 50 threshold that separates contraction from expansion for the fifth month. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
PM Shinzo Abe's cabinet is likely to approve a ¥28tn (US$273bn) stimulus package today, though direct fiscal spending will total only about ¥7tn. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />China stocks fell to a near one-month closing low on Monday as investor sentiment was hit by regulators' crackdown on speculation as well as a fresh wave of IPOs. China's securities watchdog has recently tightened rules over hedge funds, limited shadow banking business of mutual fund houses and is drafting rules aimed at curbing money flows from banks into the stock market through wealth management products. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
China's manufacturing activity expanded for the first time in 17 months in July as output and new orders increased. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6, beating market expectations of 48.7 and up from 48.6 in June. The reading breached the 50-point neutral level separating expansion of activity from contraction for the first time since February 2015. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /><b>Commodities</b><br />US crude tumbled below US$40 per barrel on Monday for the first time since April, as oil prices settled down nearly 4% on heightened worries of a crude glut despite peak summer fuel demand. US crude futures plumbed US$39.86, its lowest since April 20, before settling at US$40.06, down US$1.54 (-3.7%). Brent crude closed down US$1.39 (-3.2%) at US$42.14 a barrel. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Gold was little changed on Monday as the dollar weakened after investors cut expectations for a US interest rate hike in the near term following much slower-than-expected US economic growth. Spot gold was up 0.2% at US$1,353.29 an ounce. Bullion hit US$1,355.10 on Friday, its highest since July 12. US gold futures for December settled up 0.2% at US$1,359.60 per ounce. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Downbeat global data and sliding crude prices drag

Expect SET to edge lower today as risk sentiment is dampened by overnight losses in global stock markets and as oil prices tumbled below US...

US Goldilocks data help again

<div style="text-align: justify;">
Thai shares look set to start the week with gains trailing global bourses after disappointing US GDP data released on Friday cut the chance of a Fed rate hike in the next few months and eases fears of capital flow out of emerging markets. Although BOJ’s less-than-expected stimulus steps underwhelmed investors, hope remains for PM Abe’s hefty fiscal expansions. Locally, BOT’s upbeat economic growth projection in 2Q16 is particularly encouraging. The government’s new round of renewable energy bids adds to a positive tone.</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Local issue</b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b> </b>BoT upbeat on 2Q16 growth. A senior officer of BoT said overall economic growth in 2Q16 is expected to surpass 3.2% in 1Q16. The growth should be mainly from domestic demand factors, especially public spending, tourism, and private consumption. NESDB will announce the country’s Apr-Jun economic reading on 15 Aug. (Bangkok Post)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i>Comment: This somewhat signals Thailand’s economy is recovering and the public spending has been bearing fruits as the state expected.</i></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
Government to open renewable power bids. The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) announced that it would open bids for investors to develop renewable power plants with a combined generating capacity of 1,000 MW, total worth Bt60bn, with bidding to take place by year-end. The projects include 1) 36 MW biomass power plants in the three southernmost provinces, 2) 400 MW biomass and biogas power plants nationwide, 3) 400 MW solar farms under the state agencies investment, 4) combined 50 MW opened for industrial waste power, and 5) combined 130 MW of power produced from metropolitan waste. (Bangkok Post)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i>Comment: Firms who should benefit include 1) EPC contractors: GUNKUL (Bt5.50; BUY; AWS TP Bt6.51), DEMCO, TPOLY 2) potential power producers: TPCH (Bt18.50; BUY; AWS TP Bt24.16), BWG.</i></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i><br /></i>Hopes for Thai fashion products. According to the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), the export value of Thai fashion products is expected to reach Bt1tn a year in the next five years as the country remains on course to compete globally. Such a target is well above the current export value of Bt620bn for fashion goods. TDRI’s president said Thailand’s fashion industry should penetrate more into Asean countries where their economies are on the rise. (Bangkok Post)<br /> </div>
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<b>Global issues</b><br />Dismal US GDP data cuts Fed rate hike bets: Fed funds rate futures are pricing in only around a 30% chance of a rate hike by December, compared to about 50% early last week, after disappointing 2Q16 US economic growth data. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
US Treasury prices jumped on Friday as disappointing US GDP caused traders to scale back expectations for a Fed rate hike in the next few months. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were up 17/32 in price for a yield of 1.451%, the lowest since July 12. The two-year Treasury yield was down 5.5 percentage points at 0.663%, its lowest in over a week. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The dollar dropped on Friday on weak 2Q16 US GDP data, while the Japanese yen soared after the BOJ's stimulus plans underwhelmed investors. The dollar index dropped 1.22% to 96.566, the lowest level since 5 Jul. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /><b>USA</b><br />Wall Street shares ended mixed on Friday, with the DJIA falling but the S&P500 and Nasdaq rising, as gains in tech heavyweights Alphabet and Amazon offset losses in energy shares. Alphabet, the internet company and also a parent company of Google, posted strong quarterly revenue growth. Meanwhile online retailer Amazon.com gave an upbeat forecast for 2Q16. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />Aggregate 2Q16 earnings of S&P500 companies are now expected to fall 3.7%, worse than a 2.8% decline predicted on Thursday, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The US economy grew far less than expected in 2Q16 as inventory investment fell for the first time in nearly five years, but a surge in consumer spending pointed to underlying strength. US GDP in 2Q16 grew at a 1.2% rate, coming in below expectations for a rise of 2.6%. 1Q16 GDP growth had been revised down to 0.8% from 1.4% growth in previous report. Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a 2.4% rate. Inventory accumulation by businesses fell by US$8.1bn in 2Q16, the first drop since 3Q11, down from a US$40.7bn increase in 1Q16. As a result, inventory investment subtracted 1.16 percentage points from GDP growth in 2Q16 (Reuters)</div>
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US consumer spending surged: Consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of US economic activity, increased at a 4.2% rate - the fastest since 4Q14 and accounting for the rise in GDP growth in 2Q16. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /><b>Europe</b><br />European shares rose on Friday helped by some encouraging company updates and financial stocks before the release later in the day of the results of Europe-wide stress tests. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
EU banks are broadly resilient to stress conditions in 2016: The results of the 2016 health check of 51 banks across the EU were released by the European Banking Authority (EBA) on Friday. Moody's says EU banks are broadly resilient to EBA's severe scenario in 2016 stress tests, marking a significant improvement upon the results of the EBA's test in 2014. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Asia</b><br />Japanese household spending fell 2.2% YoY in June in price-adjusted real terms, government data showed on Friday. That compared with the median forecast for a 0.3% decline. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
BOJ disappoints: The BOJ announced a modest increase in purchases of ETFs on Friday, but maintained its base money target at ¥80tn (US$775bn) as well as the pace of purchases for other assets including Japanese government bonds. The BOJ also kept negative interest rates unchanged at minus 0.1%. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Activity in China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly shrank slightly in July from the previous month, an official survey showed on Monday. The official PMI stood at 49.9 in July, compared with the previous month's reading of 50 and just below the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. Analysts polled by Reuters predicted a reading of 50.0. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Commodities</b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Oil prices steadied on Friday after touching three-month lows during a week-long selloff fueled by a persistent global supply glut, bringing the monthly decline to nearly 15%, the biggest monthly loss in a year for US crude. Brent October contract rose 30 cents to settle at US$43.53. US crude futures rose 46 cents (+1.0%) to settle at US$41.60 a barrel. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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Gold rose to its highest level in nearly three weeks on Friday after much slower-than-expected US economic growth weighed on the dollar, and was on track for a second monthly gain in a row. Spot gold was up 1.4% at US$1,353.44. US gold settled up 1.3% at US$1,349 per ounce. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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US Goldilocks data help again

Thai shares look set to start the week with gains trailing global bourses after disappointing US GDP data released on Friday cut the chance...

Range bound

<div style="text-align: justify;">
Thai shares look set to move in a tight range today as investors are likely to be cautious ahead of the BOJ’s decision later in the day on whether or not it will match PM Abe’s hefty US$265bn fiscal stimulus with monetary expansion of an equal magnitude. The other main focus is the US 2Q16 GDP due later today, which could support the Fed’s decision to hike rate earlier than the market expectation. Local factors today are mixed. The MOF’s confidence that the economy will grow a solid 3.3% this year, despite sluggish global growth, is definitely positive. However, the unresolved financing scheme for the joint Thai-Chinese 252KM rail project and lower-than-expected factory output in June are negatives.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Local issue</b><br />FPO reiterated 3.3% economic growth. The Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) has kept its GDP growth projection unchanged at 3.3% this year, with the boost from the government’s investments and robust tourism industry. However, it has cut its FY16 export forecast to a contraction of 1.9%, from a contraction of 0.7%. (Bangkok Post)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i>Comment: In spite of the cloudy export outlook, Thailand’s overall economic growth seems to be on course. Though FPO’s GDP forecast is above BoT’s forecast of 3.1%, it is still in line with NESDB projection of 3-3.5%.</i></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
New GSB scheme to assist low-income earners. According to Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak, the new financial packages for low-income earners, community enterprises, and existing customers of the Government Savings Bank (GSB) are set to go before the cabinet next week. One of the packages includes soft loans for general borrowers with zero interest in the first year and 1% in the second or the third year. However, further details are not yet available. (Bangkok Post)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />Thai-Chinese rail budget remains unclear. The 12th meeting between Thai and Chinese authorities on the joint 252.5km rail project still failed to come up with a clear cost estimate, but the Transport Ministry said cost will certainly not be greater than Bt179bn. Budget spending on a feasibility study and future expenses related to training courses for Thai staff, both based on Beijing’s calculations, are two unresolved issues remaining. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<br /><b>Global issues</b><br />The main focus today is the BOJ’s decision after its two-day policy meeting. The central bank is under pressure from the Japanese government to come up with specific steps for expanding monetary stimulus to address signs of weakness in inflation. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
US Treasury prices were little changed on Thursday, with longer-dated yields dropping to two-week lows, as the possibility of more stimulus from the BOJ offset softer-than-expected readings on traded goods and jobless claims. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were up 1/32 in price for a yield of 1.506%, down 1 basis point from Wednesday, while the 30-year bond was flat, yielding 2.228%. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The dollar weakened against major currencies on Thursday. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, fell 0.34% to 96.726. The dollar gained 0.04% to ¥104.44. The euro rose 0.15% to US$1.1072. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>USA</b><br />Wall Street shares mostly rose on Thursday in anticipation of results from tech heavyweights Alphabet and Amazon.com. The market initially were dragged lower by Ford Motor’s poor 2Q16 profit. The US market was range-bound for a second week. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
US jobless claims rose more than expected last week, but the underlying trend continued to point to sustained labor market strength. The number increased 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 266,000 for the week ended 23 Jul. Economists had forecast initial claims rising to 260,000 in the latest week. Claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market, for 73 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch since 1973. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />US trade deficit widened in June: US trade deficit was US$63.3bn in June, up US$2.2bn from US$61.1bn in May. Exports of goods for June were US$120.2bn, US$1.1bn more than May exports. Imports of goods for June were US$183.5bn, US$3.3bn more than May imports. (US Census Bureau)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The US government is expected to report later today that US GDP increased at a 2.6% annual rate in 2Q16 after rising at a 1.1% pace in 1Q16 and 1.4% in 4Q15, according to a Reuters survey of economists. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
New orders for US manufactured capital goods rose less than expected in June amid weak demand for machinery, suggesting an ongoing downturn in business spending. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, increased 0.2% last month after decreasing 0.5 percent in May. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Europe</b><br />European shares fell on Thursday with Lloyds leading a weaker financial sector lower and disappointing earning updates from firms including oil major Royal Dutch Shell also weighing. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Asia</b><br />Japan's industrial output rose 1.9% in June, in a sign that demand is starting to pick up. That compared with the median estimate for a 0.7% increase in a Reuters poll of economists. Manufacturers surveyed by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry expect output to rise 2.4% in July and increase by 2.3% in August. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Japanese retail sales fell 1.4% YoY in June, slightly less than a median forecast for a 1.5% decline, government data showed on Friday. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Japan's core consumer prices fell 0.5% YoY in June, matching a decline last recorded in March 2013. The core CPI, which includes oil products but excludes fresh food prices, was lower than economists' median estimate for a 0.4% annual fall. The so-called core-core inflation index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.4% in the year to June. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />Chinese bank regulators are cracking down on short-term investments. They are going to bar smaller lenders from the riskier and most lucrative US$3.5tn market for wealth management products. The move should help to protect savers and limit the hazards caused by repackaging loans as short-term investments. Authorities want to prevent banks with net capital of less than 5bn yuan (US$750mn) and less than three years' experience in the industry from issuing anything other than simple investment products backed by assets like cash and bonds. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /><b>Commodities</b><br />Oil prices settled down nearly 2% on Thursday, hitting April lows and with US crude headed for its biggest monthly loss in a year, on growing worries that the world was pumping more crude than needed. US crude's WTI futures settled down 78 cents (-1.9%) at US$41.14 a barrel. Brent crude futures fell 77 cents (-1.8%) to settle at US$42.70. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Gold turned lower after hitting a two-week peak on Thursday as the dollar pared losses and US stocks climbed from their lows ahead of a possible BOJ announcement to expand monetary stimulus on Friday. Spot gold was down 0.3% at US$1,335.60 an ounce. US gold futures for August delivery settled up 0.4% at US$1,332.30. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Range bound

Thai shares look set to move in a tight range today as investors are likely to be cautious ahead of the BOJ’s decision later in the day on ...

Renewed rate hike concerns

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</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Expect the SET to trade lower today after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but left the door open for a rate increase this year as it appeared less concerned about near-term risks. As a result rate hike concerns have returned. Financial markets responded differently. While the US Treasury market braced for a rate hike in favour of long-dated notes, the FX market and gold markets viewed the other extreme end as witnessed by the weakness in the US dollar and rising gold prices. However, Japan’s PM Abe’s hefty US$265bn stimulus package should provide support for global equities, particularly in Asia. Local factors today are mostly positive. Less contraction in June exports with robust increases in auto exports, production and domestic sales are very encouraging.</div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Local issue</b><br />Signs of recovery in export. According to the Commerce Ministry, exports in Jun dropped 0.1% YoY to US$18.1bn while imports in Jun dropped 10.1% YoY to US$16.2bn, resulting in a trade surplus of US$1.96bn. Though exports fell for a third-straight month, the contraction was the lowest in three months compared to declines of 4.4% in May and 8% in Apr, which indicates some signs of recovery in the country’s shipments. The improved export was particularly boosted by cars and car parts, hard-disk drives, and gold. (Bangkok Post)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Robust data on auto output and sales in June. Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) reported automobile production in June surged 18.6% YoY (+6.82% MoM) to 179,875 units. Domestic car sales in June improved 9.5% YoY (flat MoM) to 66,049 units, while the export of finished cars edged up 39.4% YoY (+7.5% MoM) to 107,025 units with value soaring 63.6% to Bt57.46bn. For the first six months, automobile production increased 6.2% YoY to 993,380 units, while car export was up 3.25% YoY to 594,823 units with the value increasing 14.35% YoY to Bt319.09bn. Domestic car sales were flat YoY at 368,630 units. (FTI)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i>Comment: Automotive figures are getting better each month. We rate the automotive sector NEUTRAL with a positive outlook. We will be monitoring the upcoming figures to see whether they remain supportive over the next month and whether FTI considers revising up the production target, we will then consider re-rating.</i></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />Indonesia is boosting sugar imports from Thailand following a free trade agreement between the two countries, but Australia could erode the Thai advantage if a similar deal is sealed. Indonesia has seen an increase in raw sugar imports from Thailand since the raw sugar import duty from ASEAN producers was cut to 5% in 2015. The share of Thai raw sugar out of the total raw sugar imported to Indonesia, had risen to about 60% in 2015/16, from 30-40% in 2013/14. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<i>Comment: Apart from the prevailing global sugar deficit, this should have a positive impact on sugar prices and Thai sugar producers like BRR and KSL.</i></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Global issues</b><br />The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. It said that near-term risks to the US economic outlook had diminished, opening the door for a potential near-term hike. The central bank also noted that inflation expectations were on balance little changed in recent months, and gave no firm indication of whether it would raise rates at its next policy meeting in September. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The spread between shorter-dated and long-dated US Treasury yields contracted on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said near-term risks on the US economy had abated, leaving the door open to raise interest rates later this year. The yield difference between US 5-year and 30-year Treasuries briefly narrowed to just under 110 basis points, which was its tightest level since Mar 2015 as traders favored longer-dated bonds which will fare better than shorter issues if the Fed increases short-term rates and inflation remains tame. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
The Japanese yen weakened against the dollar on Wednesday after Japan's PM Abe unveiled a surprisingly large US$265bn stimulus package to reflate the world's third-largest economy. The yen was last down 0.92% at ¥105.64 per dollar. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>USA</b><br />Wall Street shares finished lower on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged but opened the door to a possible rate increase later this year.<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Better earnings expectations: After several results released, particularly Boeing, S&P500 companies' aggregate earnings are now expected to decline 3.0% for 2Q16, compared with the 3.5% decline expected a day ago and 4.5% contraction earlier in the month, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /><b>Europe</b><br />European shares rose on Wednesday with the market underpinned by well-received earning updates from companies including Peugeot and LVMH, while Deutsche Bank fell after a poor update. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Asia</b><br />Abe to compile US$265bn stimulus: Japanese PM Shinzo Abe said on Wednesday his government would compile a stimulus package of more than ¥28tn (US$265bn and nearly 6% of GDP) to reflate the flagging economy. The amount exceeds initial estimates of around ¥20tn, includes ¥13tn in fiscal measures. Details of the package will be announced next week. (Reuters)</div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br />Japan's government said on Wednesday it will raise the minimum wage by 3% this fiscal year as part of a stimulus package intended to strengthen domestic demand and address criticism that economic policy has left behind many low-income earners. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
China stocks closed sharply lower on Wednesday as investors sold off after officials warned of asset bubbles, without being more specific. Investors have been already worried that regulators were preparing to restrict China's vast retail wealth management sector from buying stocks. Wealth management products are one of the biggest sources of shadow banking activity in China and invest in a variety of things, including equities. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Commodities</b><br />Oil prices tumbled 3% on Wednesday, with US crude futures hitting three-month lows, as US crude and gasoline stocks surged on weak demand during the peak summer driving season. WTI crude futures settled down US$1 (-2.3%) at US$41.92 a barrel. Brent futures fell US$1.40 (-3.1%) to settle at US$43.47 a barrel. The EIA said crude stockpiles soared 1.7mn barrels last week, instead of falling 2.3mn barrels as forecast. Gasoline inventories rose 452,000 barrels, compared with analysts' expectations for a 40,000-barrel increase. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Gold extended its climb above US$1,330 an ounce on Wednesday after the Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected and the dollar pared gains against a basket of major currencies. Spot gold was up 0.9% at US$1,331.20 an ounce. US gold futures for August delivery settled up 0.45% at US$1,326.70. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Renewed rate hike concerns

Expect the SET to trade lower today after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but left the door open for a rate increase th...

Caution ahead of Fed and BOJ meetings

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Thai shares look set to trade in a narrow range today following a mixed 
performance on Wall Street overnight as investors braced for policy 
actions from the Fed later in the day and the BOJ on Friday. While the 
Fed is widely expected to stand pat, market players are focusing on the 
magnitude of stimulus measures from the BOJ. Oil prices were also mixed;
 US crude futures dropped further while Brent edged up. Locally, while 
contractors will enjoy more work to bid after the Cabinet gave the green
 light for the Bt44.2bn Red Line projects, the MOF’s plan to raise 
excise taxes may be counterproductive to the economic growth target.<b> </b><br />
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<b>Local issue</b><br />
Red Lines approved. The cabinet yesterday gave the nod to construction of the Light Red Line (Bang Sue to Hua Mark) and Dark Red Line (Bang Sue to Hua Lamphong) worth a combined Bt44.16bn. The projects are part of the government’s 20 infrastructure projects. The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) is expected to call bids in August and construction is planned to commence in February. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: Opening bidding for the projects will benefit the big four contractors (ITD, CK, STEC and UNIQ) the most as they are qualified by SRT. ITD and UNIQ are the operators of the existing route Bang Sue-Rungsit and might have a slight cost advantage in new bidding. However, other operators from abroad might come to join the bidding and add competition.</i></div>
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The existing telecom regulator (NBTC) plans to forward the new schedule for spectrum reallocation to the successor. There will be no more spectrum auctions under the current commission whose term will end in October next year. Under the allocation plan, there will be three spectrum bands waiting for auction: 2.6 GHz, 1800 MHz and 700MHz. (The Nation)</div>
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<i>Comment: NBTC planned to auction the 45MHz on the 700MHz currently used by television channels for reallocation for telecom service in 2020. It would take a long time to negotiate 2.6 GHz spectrum allocation with MCOT too. We believe there would be no auction until September 2018 when CAT Telecom’s concession expires. DTAC (Bt31.25, Hold, AWS 16TP Bt31.00) will suffer the most from prolonged spectrum allocation since it lost in both the 1800 MHz and 900MHz auctions.</i></div>
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Mulling excise tax increase. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha confirmed his government will raise excise taxes to increase tax-based revenue by at least one-third, citing that the government must take care of the poor and the elderly and provide for health care and public education, and to correspond with trade rules by the World Trade Organization and free trade agreements. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<b>Global issues</b><br />
US Treasury held firm on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting that may produce clues on the timing of a rate hike. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was down 1 basis point at 1.565%, while the 30-year yield slipped about half a basis point to 2.283%. The two-year yield, which is sensitive to the view on Fed policy, was little changed at 0.762% after reaching 0.7780%, its highest since the Brexit vote. (Reuters)</div>
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The yen reached more than one-week highs against the US dollar on Tuesday on reduced expectations of how much new stimulus authorities will inject into Japan's ailing economy. The yen gained 1.7% against the dollar to ¥103.995, its highest since 14 Jul, before falling back to ¥104.64, up 1.08% on the day. (Reuters)</div>
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<b>USA</b><br />
Wall Street shares closed mixed on Tuesday as investors braced for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and the result season shifted into a high gear. The US central bank began a two-day meeting and while it is not expected to raise US interest rates, investors will be watching for hints about when it might make a move. (Reuters)</div>
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Investors presume better-than-consensus earnings estimates: Almost a third of the way into 2Q16 reports, S&P500 companies overall are expected to see earnings dip 3.5%, not as bad as the 4.5% dip predicted at the start of the month and the 5.0% contraction in 1Q16. (Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S)</div>
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New US single-family home sales rose more than expected in June, reaching their highest level in nearly 8-1/2 years, the latest sign that the housing market was gathering momentum. New home sales increased 3.5% to 592,000 units last month, the highest level since February 2008, from May's upwardly revised sales of 572,000 units. Economists had forecast new home sales, which account for about 9.6% of the housing market, rising to a rate of 560,000 units last month. (Reuters)</div>
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US consumer confidence held steady in July. The Conference Board said its consumer index was 97.3 this month after a reading of 97.4 in June. Economists had expected the index to drop to 95.9 in July. (Reuters)</div>
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The US government is expected to report on Friday that the economy grew 
at a 2.6% annual rate in 2Q16, accelerating from the 1.1% pace logged in
 1Q16, according to a Reuters survey of economists. (Reuters) <br />
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<b>Europe</b><br />European shares rose on Tuesday bolstered by gains in major healthcare and consumer goods stocks, partly offsetting persistent concerns over the region's banking system. (Reuters)<br /><br /><b>Asia</b><br />Financial markets are focused on uncertainty over the magnitude of monetary and fiscal stimulus due from Japan and how the government will cooperate with the BOJ in stimulating the economy. (Reuters)<br /><br />The Chinese economy still faces relatively big downward pressure, said China's Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party. Authorities will continue to implement proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy. China will keep the yuan exchange rate stable, and will also guide reasonable growth in credit and social financing. (Reuters)<br /> </div>
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<b>Commodities</b><br />
US crude prices fell on Tuesday, hitting three-month lows, as worries over a gasoline glut outweighed expectations of US crude stock declines, while Brent erased early losses to settle higher due to its better fundamentals versus US crude. WTI settled down 21 cents (-0.5%) at US$42.92 a barrel. Brent rose 15 cents (+0.3%) to settle at US$44.87 a barrel. (Reuters)</div>
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Gold rose on Tuesday as the dollar fell, but remained hemmed into a range at the start of a two-day US Federal Reserve policy meeting. Spot gold was up 0.4% at US$1,319.96 an ounce. US gold futures for August delivery settled up US$1.30 (+0.1%) at US$1,320.80. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Caution ahead of Fed and BOJ meetings

Thai shares look set to trade in a narrow range today following a mixed performance on Wall Street overnight as investors braced for pol...

Catch breath

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Expect the market to tread water today after Wall Street pulled back from record levels and ahead of this week’s two major central bank meetings in the US and Japan. Oil prices fell to 3-month lows on global supply glut which will likely to weigh on energy shares. Locally, more SME assistance is coming, including tax breaks for large corporations that help SMEs, a Bt2.3bn venture capital fund to support SMEs, and SME start-up funds. Although these measures have limited direct impact on market sentiment, they will bring about positive long-term results to the economy.</div>
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<b>Local issue</b><br />Tax measures for helping SMEs to cabinet approval today. Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong will seek cabinet approval for the new tax measures today. These include a tax break on expenses for large corporations that help SMEs and a tax break for investments in social development projects. The measures are expected to be effective immediately after approval through the end of 2018. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: Another attempt from the state to strengthen SMEs as they are the group most likely hit by economic slowdown.</i></div>
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Venture capital fund to assist SMEs. A venture capital fund, collaborated between KTB (Bt17.20; BUY; 16 AWS TP Bt20.00), SET, and NSTDA, is expected to officially launch in 3Q16. The fund is named the SME Private Equity Trust Fund worth Bt2.3bn and is expected to help SMEs access financial sources to expand their businesses, especially those using high technology to create innovative products and SME startups with high potential (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The fund is set in response to the cabinet order to help SMEs, which eventually would stimulate the country’s economy.</i></div>
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<br />To streamline export process. In response to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's directive to enhance the export process for rice, sugar, rubber and frozen goods and hazardous products, the commerce ministry initially plans to streamline the country’s rice export process by reducing the number of procedures rice exporters must complete from 14 to four through the use of electronic systems. Ministry estimates exporters’ travel and paper costs would significantly reduce from 12,140 baht to 2,076 baht for each contract. (Bangkok Post)</div>
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<i>Comment: The streamlining of the rice export process would be a role model for the export of the other products.</i></div>
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<i> </i><br /><b>Global issues</b><br />The Federal Reserve is seen as unlikely to raise interest rates on Wednesday. Improving economic data has increased expectations that the Fed will raise rates in December. Fed fund futures on Monday indicate a 56% chance of a rate hike in December, up from 48% on Friday. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />US Treasury yields climbed on Monday to four-week highs following a weak US$26bn two-year note sale, part of US$88bn of coupon-bearing government debt being auctioned this week. The yield on the two-year note was up over 1 basis point to 0.723%. Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes were last down 2/32 in price for a yield of 1.575%, up almost 1 basis point from Friday. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />The dollar was steady against the euro and yen on Monday as investors look ahead to central bank meetings with the Fed due to conclude a two-day meeting on Wednesday and the BOJ due to meet on Friday. The dollar was little changed on the day at ¥106.04, and steady against the euro at US$1.0984. (Reuters)</div>
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<br /><b>USA</b><br />Wall Street shares ended lower on Monday, pulling back from record highs, as oil fell to three-month lows, weighing on energy shares and leading the market down. Investors also awaited the rate decision from Federal Reserve’s 2-day policy meeting that begins today and an avalanche of quarterly reports. (Reuters)</div>
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<br /><b>Europe</b><br />European stocks rose on Monday, with low-cost airline Ryanair climbing after it issued a bullish outlook while shares in William Hill surged on bid interest from its rivals. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />The IFO business morale survey showed the resilience of Germany, Europe's biggest economy, to the turmoil triggered by the Brexit. Even though the IFO reading fell to 108.3 in July from 108.7 in June, it still came in stronger than the Reuters consensus forecast for a reading of 107.5. (Reuters)</div>
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<br /><b>Asia</b><br />Japan's government is likely to inject ¥6tn (US$57bn) in direct fiscal outlays into the economy over the next few years under a planned stimulus package, double the amount initially planned, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Tuesday. The total size of the package, which could be announced as soon as 2 August, could exceed ¥20tn. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />China scored a diplomatic victory on Monday as Southeast Asian nations dropped a US-backed proposal to mention an international court ruling against Beijing's territorial claims in the South China Sea in a joint statement. The deadlock between ASEAN foreign ministers was broken only when the Philippines withdrew its request to mention the ruling in the face of resolute objections from Cambodia, China's closest ASEAN ally. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />The yuan edged higher on Monday but stayed within sight of last week's near-six year low against the dollar as investors worried that improved economic activity in 2Q16 was a blip with weakness likely in coming months. The spot market opened at 6.6830 per dollar and was changing hands at 6.6774 at midday, 0.12% away from the midpoint of 6.6860 per dollar, and weaker than Friday's setting of 6.6669. (Reuters)</div>
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<br /><b>Commodities</b><br />Oil prices fell more than 2% on Monday, with US crude hitting a three-month low, on rising concerns that a global glut of crude and refined products would pressure markets, delaying a long-anticipated rebalance in the market. US crude settled down US$1.06 at US$43.13 a barrel, after touching a three-month low of US$42.97 during the session. Brent crude futures ended the session down 97 cents at US$44.72 a barrel, after hitting their lowest since May 10 at US$44.55. (Reuters)</div>
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<br />Gold pared losses on Monday as the dollar and world stock markets turned lower ahead of central bank meetings in the US and Japan. Spot gold was down 0.2% at US$1,319.63 an ounce. US gold futures for August delivery settled down US$3.9 (-0.29%) at US$1,319.50. (Reuters)</div>
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<span style="color: #660000;">Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com</span></div>
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Catch breath

Expect the market to tread water today after Wall Street pulled back from record levels and ahead of this week’s two major central bank mee...