Today, expect SET to move in a narrow range with negative bias as most investors take a cautious stance ahead of a series of policy statements from major central banks, particularly the BOJ today and the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Although the BOJ and Fed are expected to hold their policy rates unchanged, investors will be on the lookout for clues on future interest rates. Energy counters could be under pressure as oil prices tumbled again. Locally, investor confidence that rose for the first time in five months in the wake of the government's clearer infrastructure policy and a set of stimulus measures is very positive. However, it may not be able to offset global negative/cautious stance.
Local issue
Megaprojects will go ahead, said Minister. Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith has assured investors the government's 20 infrastructure projects worth Bt1.8tn will go ahead as planned following the military regime's latest order to allow state authorities to fast track mandatory environmental impact assessments (EIAs) for state projects. (Bangkok Post)
FTI asks to boost border economy. Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) has urged the government to set up exhibition centers in neighboring countries, including CLMV countries and Malaysia, to support border trade and channel regional integration after the implementation of the Asean Economic Community (AEC). (Bangkok Post)
Public debt saw a decline in January. According to the report by Public Debt Management, January public debt decreased by Bt24.3bn from Dec 2015, which would leave total country debt of Bt5.98tn. This amount accounted for 44.05% of the country’s GDP. Of the total amount, Bt4.39tn was government debt; Bt1.04tn was run up by state-owned enterprises; Bt531.12bn was accumulated from the sale of bonds for state-owned enterprises; and Bt17.45bn was debt from other government agencies. (Bangkok Post)
BoT reached an agreement with BNM. Bank of Thailand has signed a Heads of Agreement on reciprocal bilateral arrangements under the Qualified Asean Banking (QAB) framework with Bank Negara Malaysia, the Malaysian central bank. These bilateral negotiations will allow indigenous banks from both countries with QAB status to run operations in the neighboring country and get the same treatment as local banks. (Bangkok Post)
Global issues
Focus on central banks’ decisions: Attention switched to policy meetings this week of the Bank of Japan, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, among others. They follow last week's interest rate cut, asset-purchase program extension and new cheap loans for banks pledge at the European Central Bank. (Reuters)
A global deal to freeze oil production could be signed in April and exclude Iran, which has the right to boost output after years of sanctions, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said on Monday after talks in Tehran. A final agreement on an output freeze to support oil prices, which have fallen 65% since peaking in Jun 2014 due to oversupply, is seen next month. (Reuters)
US Treasury debt prices rose on Monday, recovering after an aggressive selloff last week, as investors tried to get back to neutral positions ahead of the Fed’s meeting. In mid-morning trading, the benchmark 10-year note rose 6/32 in price to yield 1.955% from 1.993% on Friday. (Reuters)
The dollar rose on Monday in tight trading, adding to Friday's gains against the euro and other European currencies as investors pursued riskier European assets and awaited a packed slate of upcoming central bank meetings this week. (Reuters)
USA
Wall Street shares ended broadly flat on Monday as gains in consumer discretionary stocks offset losses in energy shares after oil prices plunged as much as 4% and investors paused ahead of the US Federal Reserve's 2-day policy meeting, which begins later today. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates this time around but investors will be on the lookout for its view on the economy and clues on the path of future hikes. (Reuters)
US inflation rebounded last month from record low levels, probably adding to help pave the way for Fed rate hikes in the months ahead. The New York Fed's survey of consumers found expectations for inflation one year in the future rose to 2.71% in February, from January's 2.42%, which was the lowest level since the survey began in mid-2013. Median expectations three years in the future edged up to 2.62% last month, from 2.45%. (Reuters)
Europe
European equities extended gains on Monday, with auto shares propelled by a positive outlook for the sector and miners helped by a steadying of copper prices below four-month highs. (Reuters)
Asia
Most investors expect the BOJ to hold interest rates steady at a policy meeting today, as Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said he hopes to spend more time assessing the impact on the economy of its negative interest rate policy that it unveiled in January. Any additional easing steps would likely take the form of a modest increase in asset purchases. Investors await Kuroda's post-meeting press conference at 0630 GMT. (Reuters)
China stocks rose sharply on Monday, led by small-caps, with investors encouraged by a regulator's assurance it was premature to consider withdrawing government bailout funds, and comments dispelling fears of a flood of IPOs. (Reuters)
Commodities
Global oil prices fell as much as 4% on Monday on concerns a 6-week market recovery has gone beyond fundamentals, as US crude stockpiles continue to mount and Iran maintains little interest in a global production freeze. US crude was down US$1.65 (-4.3%) at US$36.85 a barrel. It hit a 3-month high of US$39.02 on Friday, surging from a 12-year low of US$26.05 a month earlier. Brent was down US$1.20 (-2.9%) at US$39.19 a barrel. The global crude benchmark fell to a 2003 low of US$27.10 in late January. (Reuters)
Gold steadied on Monday, paring earlier gains as stock markets and the dollar gained, with moves muted ahead of closely watched policy meetings of US and Japanese central banks this week. Spot gold was little changed at US$1,248.66 an ounce, off an earlier high of US$1,260.71. US gold futures for April delivery were down US$9.60 an ounce at US$1,249.80. (Reuters)
Base metals were down on Monday, weighed by a stronger dollar and weak Chinese industrial output. Three-month aluminium on the LME closed 1.2% lower at US$1,542.50 a tonne after touching US$1,536, the weakest since Feb. 19. LME copper shed 0.5% to end at US$4,946 a tonne, after touching a 4-month peak of US$5,059 on 4 Mar and gaining 1.6% in the prior session. (Reuters)
Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com