Thai shares look set to trade higher today as an upward revision in 4Q15 US GDP growth and a return to growth of China's industrial sector’s profits in Jan-Feb 2016 should ease global growth worries. However, US data this week, including non-farm payrolls, should be about right, i.e. not too strong to stir rate hike fears and yet not too weak to cause recession concerns, to underpin investor sentiment. Local factors today are broadly positive and should support the market. Feb exports returned to growth for the first time in 14 months and prospects are improving going forward. Also, the government has decided to go ahead with the high speed train this year without waiting for China to jointly invest.
Local issue
Exports grew for the first time in 14 months in February. However, the increase was irregularly large due to significant exports of gold and military-drill equipment. Thai shipments in February rose 10.3% YoY to US$19bn compared with a fall of 8.91% in January. Excluding unusual military hardware exports worth US$683mn and gold shipment worth US$1.89bn, Thailand’s exports fell 2.0% YoY. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
Exports grew for the first time in 14 months in February. However, the increase was irregularly large due to significant exports of gold and military-drill equipment. Thai shipments in February rose 10.3% YoY to US$19bn compared with a fall of 8.91% in January. Excluding unusual military hardware exports worth US$683mn and gold shipment worth US$1.89bn, Thailand’s exports fell 2.0% YoY. (Bangkok Post/ The Nation)
Ministry maintains optimism on exports outlook. Commerce Ministry maintains its export growth target of 5% this year and said Thailand’s exports looked set to be back in positive territory for the remainder of the year due to the brighter outlook for global trading, despite some negative factors including drought and resultant lower agricultural output, fluctuating exchange rates, and the global economic slowdown. (The Nation)
“Thailand Team” projects to stimulate investment. The Thailand Team will be composed of representatives from public and private organizations, the Chamber of Commerce, Board of Trade, commercial banks, Federation of Thai Industries, and local and foreign businesses aiming to boost exports and investment internationally, starting from CLMV markets. According to Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn, the move is a part of its attempt to setup central database on trade and investment which woud support analysis and business decision making. (The Nation)
Delayed bullet train to commence this year. As the government decided to wholly invest in the Thai-Sino high-speed rail project, such project has been shortened to 250km from Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima, from its previous plan of 845km. The construction is anticipated to start this August and should be completed in 2019. (Bangkok Post)
Global issues
The March US employment report and other data could help US stocks as long as that data are not strong enough to add to worries about further interest rate hikes, yet not weak enough to cause concern about a recession. A Reuters poll shows non-farm payrolls expected to have increased by 200,000 jobs in March, which would be below February's gain of 242,000 jobs. US housing data will include pending home sales as well as the S&P/Case-Shiller price index. (Reuters)
The March US employment report and other data could help US stocks as long as that data are not strong enough to add to worries about further interest rate hikes, yet not weak enough to cause concern about a recession. A Reuters poll shows non-farm payrolls expected to have increased by 200,000 jobs in March, which would be below February's gain of 242,000 jobs. US housing data will include pending home sales as well as the S&P/Case-Shiller price index. (Reuters)
Chair Janet Yellen will make a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy on Tuesday. Market participants are awaiting for clues after other Fed policymakers made hawkish comments last week on the path of Fed’s interest rate. (Reuters)
Stronger dollar this morning: The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies rose to 96.394, its highest in almost two weeks. The dollar rose 0.2% to ¥113.40, keeping intact its steady recovery from its 6 1/2-month low of ¥110.67 hit on March 17. The euro was slightly softer at US$1.1160, not far from Thursday's one-week low of US$1.1144. (Reuters)
USA
The US stock and Treasury debt markets were closed on Friday for Good Friday. Data on Friday showed the US economic growth slowdown in 4Q15 was not as sharp as previously estimated while corporate profits fell for a second straight quarter. However, recent data, i.e. housing market, job market, showed an evidence of a reviving US economy. (Reuters)
The US stock and Treasury debt markets were closed on Friday for Good Friday. Data on Friday showed the US economic growth slowdown in 4Q15 was not as sharp as previously estimated while corporate profits fell for a second straight quarter. However, recent data, i.e. housing market, job market, showed an evidence of a reviving US economy. (Reuters)
US economic growth slowed in 4Q15, but not as sharply as previously estimated, with fairly strong consumer spending. GDP rose by 1.4% YoY instead of the previously reported a 1.0% increase. The economy grew 2.0% in 3Q15 and expanded 2.4% in 2015. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than 2/3 of US GDP, rose 2.4% and not the 2.0% rate reported last month. Strong consumer spending underscores the economy's underlying strength and should further allay fears of a recession. (Reuters)
1Q16 US GDP growth estimates are around a 1.5% rate. However, with the inventory pile still large and shipments of capital goods ordered by businesses weak in January and February, the risks to growth are tilted to the downside. (Reuters)
US corporate profits fell for a second straight quarter in 4Q15 as a strong dollar and cheap oil undercut the earnings of multinational and energy companies. Profits after tax in 4Q15 declined 8.4% YoY, the biggest drop since 1Q14, after falling at a 1.7% pace in 3Q15. For all of 2015 profits dropped 5.1%, the largest decline since 2008, after slipping 0.6% in 2014. (Reuters)
Europe
European stock and financial markets were closed on Friday for Good Friday and will mostly be closed on Monday for Easter. (Reuters)
European stock and financial markets were closed on Friday for Good Friday and will mostly be closed on Monday for Easter. (Reuters)
Asia
China's industrial profits returned to growth in the first two months of 2016, despite weakening business conditions and slowing economic growth. Profits earned by Chinese industrial firms in January and February combined rose 4.8% YoY, totalling 780.7bn yuan (US$119.8bn) in the two-month period. That compared with an annual fall of 4.7% in December 2015, which was the seventh straight month of decline. (Reuters)
More than 30 countries are waiting to join the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), adding to its 57 founding members. Despite the opposition of Washington, many major US allies - Australia, Britain, German, Italy, the Philippines and South Korea - have joined. (Reuters)
Financial markets in Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are closed for Easter holidays today. (Reuters)
Commodities
Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday after a three-day break, but volumes were tiny as a number of markets remain on holiday for Easter. US crude's front-month contract was up 37 cents at US$39.83 a barrel at 0055 GMT. For the week last week, it rose 2 cents, finishing up for a sixth straight week. Brent's front-month rose 24 cents to US$40.68 a barrel. (Reuters)
Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday after a three-day break, but volumes were tiny as a number of markets remain on holiday for Easter. US crude's front-month contract was up 37 cents at US$39.83 a barrel at 0055 GMT. For the week last week, it rose 2 cents, finishing up for a sixth straight week. Brent's front-month rose 24 cents to US$40.68 a barrel. (Reuters)
Gold dropped to its weakest in a month on Monday, pressured by a firmer dollar following hawkish comments from the Fed officials. Spot gold was down 0.5% at US$1,210.50 an ounce by 0058 GMT, just off a session-low of $1,209.26. That was the weakest level for cash bullion since Feb. 23. US gold for April delivery slipped 0.9% to US$1,210.90 an ounce. (Reuters)
Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com
