Thai shares are set to trade in a narrow range again today as most investors are not expected to make big bets and some may even not want to maintain loading positions ahead of a long Songkran holiday weekend. Globally, while expectations of poor upcoming US earnings season is negative to risk assets, a sagging dollar and rising oil and commodity prices are positive especially for emerging markets. Local factors today are bit and piece and should have limited impact on market sentiment.
Local issue
Moderate growth on Thailand’s GDP this year amid challenges, said World Bank. Despite challenges regarding weak external demand and domestic political uncertainty, the World Bank estimates the Thai economy this year would still grow with a moderate rate of 2.5% thanks to improving consumer confidence and consumption. The World Bank further mentioned the potential economic drivers in 2016-17, which will be the timely implementation of public infrastructure projects. Growth in Thailand is also expected to continuously expand 2.6% in 2017. (Bangkok Post)
Moderate growth on Thailand’s GDP this year amid challenges, said World Bank. Despite challenges regarding weak external demand and domestic political uncertainty, the World Bank estimates the Thai economy this year would still grow with a moderate rate of 2.5% thanks to improving consumer confidence and consumption. The World Bank further mentioned the potential economic drivers in 2016-17, which will be the timely implementation of public infrastructure projects. Growth in Thailand is also expected to continuously expand 2.6% in 2017. (Bangkok Post)
New business registrations see a rise. New business registrations inched up 1% YoY to 17,523 in 1Q16, with the value registered capital worth totaling Bt28bn, up 57% YoY. Given the slight rise in the number of new business registrations, the state remains optimistic that FY16 registrations will reach 60,000-65,000, particularly driven by government infrastructure investments and growing tourism. (Bangkok Post)
4G auction to be set for 27 May. The government will invoke Section 44 of the interim constitution to tentatively schedule the new auction round for 900MHz spectrum on 27 May, instead of previously-set 22 May as key potential bidders said the prior schedule would make it impossible for them to acquire bank loans. Invoking Section 44 means that the government is attempting to solve the problem of 2G network shutdown of 900MHz spectrum. (Bangkok Post)
Global issues
The dollar slipped against the yen on Monday while weakening across a broad swathe of currencies, under continued pressure as the US Federal Reserve has kept interest rate hike expectations low. The dollar was down 0.1% against the yen, at ¥107.97. Earlier the dollar fell to ¥107.64, the lowest level since Oct 2014. The greenback has fallen three straight weeks against the Japanese currency. (Reuters)
US Treasury yields were flat on Monday as growing hopes of stimulus in China and the potential for intervention in Japan helped support bids for riskier assets. The 2-year note was unmoved with a yield of 0.7027%. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 1/32 in price to yield 1.727%. (Reuters)
USA
Wall Street shares edged down on Monday as investors braced for an upcoming 1Q16 earnings season that is expected to be appalling. Profits at S&P500 companies are expected to have fallen 7.7% in 1Q16, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Alcoa kicked off the earnings season in weak fashion and the US banks are reporting over the next few days. (Reuters)
Wall Street shares edged down on Monday as investors braced for an upcoming 1Q16 earnings season that is expected to be appalling. Profits at S&P500 companies are expected to have fallen 7.7% in 1Q16, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Alcoa kicked off the earnings season in weak fashion and the US banks are reporting over the next few days. (Reuters)
Alcoa on Monday reported a lower quarterly profit, due to low commodity prices, the strong US dollar and plant closures or divestments. However, the company's top executive expected aluminum demand to grow faster than supply this year. Alcoa also lowered its 2016 outlook for global sales in the aerospace industry. (Reuters)
Europe
European shares rose on Monday, reversing earlier losses thanks to gains in Italian banks and mining stocks. The Italian banks rose sharply on hopes the Rome government will thrash out a plan to set up a state-backed fund to buy bad loans and plug capital shortfalls. Basic material shares rose after copper climbed on Monday as the dollar index slipped. (Reuters)
Asia
China's consumer prices rose less-than-expected in Mar, raising hopes that Beijing could continue its loose monetary policies. Fears had risen that accelerating inflation would limit room for monetary easing, after the CPI in Feb rose at its fastest pace in more than a year. However, the concern eased after the annual Mar CPI came out unchanged from the previous month at 2.3%, while wholesale prices remained stubbornly in deflation, down 4.3%, although the pace of decline eased. (Reuters)
China's consumer prices rose less-than-expected in Mar, raising hopes that Beijing could continue its loose monetary policies. Fears had risen that accelerating inflation would limit room for monetary easing, after the CPI in Feb rose at its fastest pace in more than a year. However, the concern eased after the annual Mar CPI came out unchanged from the previous month at 2.3%, while wholesale prices remained stubbornly in deflation, down 4.3%, although the pace of decline eased. (Reuters)
The dollar hit a fresh 17-month low versus the yen on Monday despite Japanese officials' ratcheting up warnings that Tokyo will take appropriate steps as needed to curb disorderly moves in the currency. (Reuters)
OECD: Japan would not be able to change the fundamental trend of the currency's value even if it intervened to stem yen rises. OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said the fact that the yen is seen as a safe-haven currency is not something that intervention can change. (Reuters)
Commodities
Brent crude prices touched a four-month high on Monday in a rally fueled by strong markets across commodities, ahead of a meeting of oil producers in Doha on Sunday 17 Apr aimed at freezing current output levels. After hitting the highest level since 7 Dec early in the day, Brent crude futures settled up 89 cents (+2.12%) at US$42.83 a barrel. US crude futures settled up 64 cents (+1.6%) at US$40.36 a barrel. (Reuters)
Brent crude prices touched a four-month high on Monday in a rally fueled by strong markets across commodities, ahead of a meeting of oil producers in Doha on Sunday 17 Apr aimed at freezing current output levels. After hitting the highest level since 7 Dec early in the day, Brent crude futures settled up 89 cents (+2.12%) at US$42.83 a barrel. US crude futures settled up 64 cents (+1.6%) at US$40.36 a barrel. (Reuters)
Gold prices rose to their highest in almost three weeks on Monday, setting the market on course toward US$1,300 an ounce, drawing confidence from continued ultra-low interest rates. Spot gold hit US$1,258.70 an ounce, its highest since 22 Mar, before retreating slightly to US$1,255.93, up 1.3%. US gold futures for Jun delivery settled up 1.1%. (Reuters)
Copper rose on Monday, rebounding from last week's six-week low as the dollar index slipped, and after benign Chinese inflation data fuelled speculation of possible further monetary stimulus. Three-month copper on the LME closed up 0.3% at US$4,664 a tonne, having logged a 3.8% loss last week for its biggest weekly decline since the first week of Jan. (Reuters)
Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com
