• US stocks ended slightly lower on Mon following a 2nd straight day of declines in crude oil prices. Oil prices lost 15% from the peak of US$42/ barrel to current levels and no signs of a recovery were yet in sight amid dampened hopes for an output freeze deal from OPEC oil barons that are set to meet on Apr 17. In our view, falling oil prices would remain negative for shares of PTT and PTTEP.
• In Thailand, the NBTC board will meet today to set a reserve price for a new 4G 900MHz auction while the orange-line electric rail project is also slated to be tabled for cabinet approval. These two factors would have a limited impact on the market for the meantime as much of the news appears to have already been baked into the market but more impact is anticipated in the runup to the bidding process.
• Trading is expected to be subdued on the Thai stock market ahead of the long Songkran holiday next week. The momentum in foreign fund flows may hold steady after the end of the XD season for big-cap stocks but bouts of profit-taking by proprietary and institutional investors are possible on risk aversion ahead of the long holiday. In this sense, we see any big dips as an opportunity to accumulate positions. The trading range for the SET index is expected to be between 1380, 1390-1405 points today.
• The short-term strategy is to buy on dips with focus on shares of companies likely to benefit from the government’s tax break for Songkran during Apr 9-17 while equity holdings should be capped at 40%-60% of the portfolio. Tourism recovery remains key investment theme to play today. We recommend holding onto AOT shares and adding
(i) CPALL shares back to the portfolio on spending optimism during Songkran festival and
(ii) going long SPA shares as a laggard play in the tourism space. On Mon, we took profits on MINT shares at short-term target with a gain of around 4.7%
Source: poems.in.th / settrade.com
