Thai shares look set to edge up today trailing moderate gains on Wall Street overnight as global market players continued to reduce expectations of an imminent US rate hike. The resulting weak dollar buoyed risk assets including crude oil and other commodities. However, market gains should be limited by yesterday’s mixed Chinese trade data and World Bank’s move to cut its global growth forecast. Local factors today are mostly neutral. The World Bank maintains its GDP growth estimate for Thailand at a moderate 2.5% in 2016. Likewise, IMF keeps Thailand’s growth forecast unchanged at 3.0% for 2016.
Local issue
IMF expects modest Thai recovery. In spite of continuing momentum, Thailand’s economy is expected to recover at a modest pace and still subject to downside risks, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Specifically, the country’s growth is estimated to grow 3% in 2016 and 3.2% in 2017. Headwinds to economic recovery may stem from further weakness in the global environment, as well as political uncertainty and structural bottlenecks weighing on potential GDP growth. (Bangkok Post)
IMF expects modest Thai recovery. In spite of continuing momentum, Thailand’s economy is expected to recover at a modest pace and still subject to downside risks, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Specifically, the country’s growth is estimated to grow 3% in 2016 and 3.2% in 2017. Headwinds to economic recovery may stem from further weakness in the global environment, as well as political uncertainty and structural bottlenecks weighing on potential GDP growth. (Bangkok Post)
World Bank maintains Thailand growth view. The bank is maintaining its full-year Thai economic growth view of 2.5%. It forecasts GDP to grow by 2.6% next year and 3% in 2018. Growth in Thailand is expected to accelerate gradually, but remain below 3% on average in 2016-18 as high household debt holds back consumption and export growth remains lukewarm. (Bangkok Post)
High-speed rail routes to be included in PPP fast track. Two high-speed railway projects, the 193.5-km Bangkok-Rayong route worth Bt153bn and the 211-km Bangkok-Hua Hin route worth Bt94.7bn, are considered to be included in the fast track public-private partnership (PPP) scheme. According to Transport Minister Arkhom Termpittayapaisith, these projects will be submitted for approval by the PPP committee by this month or next and if approved, they will be the sixth and seventh PPP project. (Bangkok Post)
Global issues
The dollar fell to a five-week low against a basket of currencies as traders reduced bets of an imminent US interest rate increase. The euro strengthened to US$1.1397, up 0.4% on the day. Its gain was limited by persistent worries that the single currency is likely to struggle if Britain votes on 23 Jun to leave the EU. Meanwhile, the greenback weakened 0.4% to ¥106.86, holding above a 4-week low set earlier this week. (Reuters)
The dollar fell to a five-week low against a basket of currencies as traders reduced bets of an imminent US interest rate increase. The euro strengthened to US$1.1397, up 0.4% on the day. Its gain was limited by persistent worries that the single currency is likely to struggle if Britain votes on 23 Jun to leave the EU. Meanwhile, the greenback weakened 0.4% to ¥106.86, holding above a 4-week low set earlier this week. (Reuters)
USA
Wall Street shares moderately rose on Wednesday, with the DJIA ending above 18,000 for the first time since April, as declines in the dollar lifted commodity-related shares and boosted the outlook for US multinational corporations that derive a large portion of their sales from overseas. (Reuters)
Wall Street shares moderately rose on Wednesday, with the DJIA ending above 18,000 for the first time since April, as declines in the dollar lifted commodity-related shares and boosted the outlook for US multinational corporations that derive a large portion of their sales from overseas. (Reuters)
Europe
European shares fell on Wednesday after two straight days of gains, as a drop in Italian bank UniCredit and Austrian bank Erste knocked financial stocks. UniCredit fell on uncertainty over the appointment of a new CEO and the possibility that it will have to launch a capital increase. Erste tumbled after insurance company Uniqa said it would sell around 17.4mn Erste shares. (Reuters)
Asia
Japan's core machinery orders tumbled 11.0% MoM in April, in a sign that business investment is contracting. That was more than the median estimate of a 3.8% decline, predicted by economists. In March, core orders rose 5.5%. Core orders fell 8.2% YoY in April, more than the median estimate of a 2.3% decline. (Reuters)
Sentiment in Japan's service sector hit a fresh low in May due to worries about oversupply in the housing market and a return to deflation. The survey of workers such as taxi drivers, hotel workers and restaurant staff, etc. showed their confidence dipped 0.5 point to 43.0 from the previous month. It was the lowest index reading since November 2014. (Reuters)
China May imports boost view, but exports disappoint: Chinese dollar-denominated exports declined 4.1% YoY in May, compared with an expected drop of 3.6%. Imports fell 0.4%, less than the predicted 6.0%, and the smallest decline since they turned negative in November 2014. China's trade surplus was US$49.98bn in May, versus forecasts of US$58bn and April's US$45.6bn. Despite the weak exports, the PBOC said it still expects the economy to grow by 6.8% this year. (Reuters)
China’s and Taiwan's financial markets will be closed 9-10 Jun for a national Tuen Ng holiday. Financial markets of both countries will resume trade on 13 Jun. Hong Kong financial markets will be closed on 9 Jun for a national Tuen Ng holiday. Hong Kong markets will resume trade on 10 Jun. (Reuters)
Foreign business in China is increasingly pessimistic due to fears of growing protectionism. Concerns include draft regulations for China's insurance and banking industries and a pending cyber-security law that could limit sales for foreign companies in favour of domestic competitors. Beijing's Made in China 2025 plan also calls for a progressive increase in domestic components in sectors such as advanced information technology and robotics. President Xi Jinping has pledged to increase government support for technology companies, raising concerns that foreign providers will be at a disadvantage. (Reuters)
Commodities
Crude futures rose on Wednesday, hitting 2016 highs above US$50 a barrel and settling up for a third straight day on worries about sabotage of oil facilities in Nigeria, although a build in US gasoline stocks amid peak summer demand could pressure prices. Brent crude settled up US$1.07 (+2.1%) at US$52.51 a barrel. US crude futures rose 87 cents (+1.7%) to settle at US$51.23 a barrel. (Reuters)
Crude futures rose on Wednesday, hitting 2016 highs above US$50 a barrel and settling up for a third straight day on worries about sabotage of oil facilities in Nigeria, although a build in US gasoline stocks amid peak summer demand could pressure prices. Brent crude settled up US$1.07 (+2.1%) at US$52.51 a barrel. US crude futures rose 87 cents (+1.7%) to settle at US$51.23 a barrel. (Reuters)
Gold rose more than 1% to a three-week high on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker dollar. Spot gold rose by as much as 1.6% to US$1,263.81 an ounce, its strongest since May 20, and was up 1.4% at US$1,260.57. US gold settled up 1.2% at US$1,262.30 an ounce. (Reuters)
Source: aws.co.th / settrade.com
