• Oil down ahead of OPEC meeting: WTI crude oil prices settled down on Wed ahead of a meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers in Vienna today while oil prices had already risen by around US$10/barrel from the previous meeting. There may be a negative surprise if the meeting ends without an agreement as Iran said it would not support any new collective output ceiling and wanted the debate to focus on the more radical idea of individual country production quotas, a move that could make oil prices volatile or possibly cause oil prices to slide into correction which would take a toll on energy shares and in turn pile pressure on the market.
• ECB meeting eyed with possible new stimulus in focus: At the center of the market’s attention will be whether the ECB will roll out new stimulus measures at today’s policy meeting after it disappointed the market with no new stimulus in the previous meeting in Apr. The Brexit vote and the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision during the middle of this month will remain key factors and challenges lying ahead for the ECB.
• YTD cumulative net proprietary inflows top Bt16,588mn: Statistics dating back 5 years ago showed proprietary traders typically held stocks for a short period of time and net proprietary inflows/outflows normally ranged between +/- Bt5bn but it is interesting to note that YTD cumulative net proprietary inflows have now topped Bt16.6bn. In this sense, the market may be at risk of profit-taking if short-term catalysts run out of fuel and it could also be vulnerable to a sharp and deep correction if the above two factors turn out to be negative surprises. The trading range for the SET index is expected to be between 1400-1420 points today.
• Short-term strategy:Selective trading looks appropriate in current market conditions with any big market dips seen as good buying opportunities.
(1) Tourism recovery play: Hold onto AOT shares.
(2) Selective play: Hold onto CHG shares.
Source: poems.in.th / settrade.com
